Home Run Derby

J.C. Bradbury writes a very interesting Op-Ed in the New York Times on what could be driving the recent fall of many of Baseball’s most hallowed records … MLB expansion. We talk a lot about steroids and such – but if you think about it – he’s probably on target here …

Expansion abruptly reversed the trend; today, the variance in quality of major league pitchers, based on E.R.A., is at an all-time high. By letting in the riffraff for baseball’s elite to exploit, expansion increased the likelihood of great achievements. Without even bringing steroids into the discussion, it is no surprise that some already fine hitters performed even better after the early 1990s.

Baseball recently expanded in 1993 from 26 to 28 teams with the addition of the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies and again in 1998 to 30 teams with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Bradbury only hints at the statistical effect however … let’s look at some numbers.

The Offensive Explosion that took place after the first expansion in 1993 is staggering.  24 Triple A pitchers started getting regular work in the bigs and Batting increased 5% while Slugging jumped 10%.  The MLB’s big ticket stat, Home Runs, went crazy as the AB/HR ratio dropped by nearly 24%.  ERA shot up 17%.  Scoring was up all over.

The 1998 expansion didn’t affect the overall league to the extent it did in 1993, but 1998 was the year of the Home Run for sluggers Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and it opened the gates for seasons by individual players which were previously thought to be impossible.  Roger Maris’ 61-HR record (which had stood for 37 years) was broken six times from 1998-2001.  70 Home Runs were hit twice in that span.  And in case you’re wondering, yes, Maris’ record was set in an expansion year as the AL increased from 8 to 10 teams.

Expansion is likely not the only reason for the jump and other factors have to be considered …

• advances in bat and ball technology
• bigger and stronger players
• performance enhancing drugs
• less small ball and more reliance on the 3-run Homer
• new stadiums that are more like NASA-funded launching pads

But when you look at one year to the next, Baseball offense took off overnight between 1992 and 1993.  Which leads me to believe that expansion was at least the catalyst. 

 

The St. Louis Cardinals received their World Series Bling about a week ago – they even had a fancy little ceremony in which St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa (presumably sober) handed out their rings.  The Cardinals promptly went out and got themselves humbled by the New York Mets, getting swept and outscored 20-2 in the three games on their home turf of Busch Stadium. 

Since then, they’ve gone 3-1 vs the underacheiving Astros and the overacheiving Pirates thanks to some good pitching.  But check out the Cardinals’ hitting stats so far this season. 

Pujols started 1 for 17 (.059 BA) before turning it up a notch the past two games (up to .200 BA)  and Duncan is the only Cardinal hitting over .300 so far.  The Cards have hit a total of three (3) Home Runs as compared to the MLB average of 5.7 HR.

Someone needs to find a Hobbit (is David Eckstein available?) and have him throw one of those rings into the cracks of Mount Doom (or at least the Mississippi River) to see if that will right the ship for the Cardinals.

In a case of life imitating art, the Cleveland Indians will host the Los Angeles of Anaheim of California Angels this week at Miller Park in Milwaukee.  Apparently this much snow (time lapse video) is an issue for playing Baseball in Cleveland …

How does life imitate art?  Well, Cleveland’s played a home opener in Milwaukee once before … in the movie Major League.  Mind you that was the old Milwaukee County Stadium (God rest its soul).  They even used the Milwaukee Brewers’ radio announce, Bob Uecker …. 

I present videographic evidence … check out the outfield wall for the old Brewers catcher mitt logo at just about 27 seconds into the clip. 

This will be the second Native American named MLB team to play a home game in Milwaukee.  The Braves played there from 1953-1965.

Thanks to Fiesta for the Cleveland Time Lapse link.

And there’s an early three-way tie for first between ChitownKaz, Morneau’s BS MVP, and Redi Doti with 21 HR through Sunday.  Last year’s champion, 1908 Cubs (formerly DitkaHawks) was off to a fantastic start in 2007, leading the entire week until he was nipped into a 4th place tie after Big Papi turned it on in the spotlight Sunday Night.

Stud of the Week – Alex Rodriguez (4 HR):  A-Rod had a bad First Inning on Opening Day (dropped pop fly and a whiff with men in scoring position) but he responded pretty well with a late inning HR that day and then had a Walk-Off Grand Slam (and 2 more HR) over the weekend.  No word if he was booed by Yankee fans this weekend.

Hot Sluggers

• Vlad Guerrero (3 HR):  The Angels are looking tough to beat after the first week.
• Adam Dunn (3 HR):  Only six strikeouts so far. 
• Grady Sizemore (3 HR):  Made the White Sox his biatch.   Only played three games (due to snow).

Cold Sluggers

• Adam LaRoche (1 HR):  13 K’s in 24 AB in Week One.  Welcome to Pissburgh.
• Albert Pujols (1 HR):  Batted .136 in Week One.
• Ryan Howard (0 HR):  Nine Walks (2 intentional) the first week of the season.  Barry Bonds only walked twice.