Home Run Derby

I was going to start the Ballpark deep dives with US Cellular Field, but my early-bird commenters (the only people who I’m sure are reading the site) seemed to spark the conversation otherwise.  Let’s start with Pittsburgh’s PNC Park and the lowest HR numbers in the majors … is it the Pirates or PNC? 

I love stadia with little nooks and crannies in the outfield wall.  PNC’s nook in left center is 410′ from the plate.  The left field corner is 325′ deep and the right field corner is a mere 320′ deep.  The right field wall however, is 21 feet high (in honor of #21 Roberto Clemente), which puts a damper on that short porch for left-handers.  The wall is only 6 feet tall in left (easy HR-saving grabs for the LF) and 10 feet tall in center. 

Let’s dive first into which team hit those 409 HR the past three seasons. 

• Pirates   – 207 HR, 39.67 AB/HR
• Visitors – 202 HR, 42.00 AB/HR

It seems like PNC is bad for the Pirates as well as the rest of the National League. I would have expected the Visitors power numbers to be higher considering the recent state of the Pirates’ pitching staff.

What are the MLB averages (excluding PNC) over the same timeframe?  

• Home – 266.7 HR, 30.57 AB/HR
• Away – 265.9 HR, 32.15 AB/HR

I think we’re looking at PNC as the culprit here.  AB/HR shifts nearly 25% better away from PNC.

And how have the Pirates done on the road the past three seasons? 

• Home – 207 HR, 39.67 AB/HR
• Away – 215 HR, 39.08 AB/HR

Hardly any better on the road.  I thought this variance would have been bigger.  This puts some blame on the Pirates considering they play in the bandbox friendly NL Central.  And now we know why the Pirates worked so hard to acquire Adam LaRoche from Atlanta.

Speaking of power hitters … let’s just look at the Pirates who we at HomerDerby really care about: Pirate sluggers Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche. 

Whoa.  Jason Bay’s AB/HR is 7 points better away from PNC.  Not much of a home-field advantage.  The road power woes of the Pirates are not Bay’s fault. 

LaRoche’s stats imply that he hits pretty well at PNC, but his sample size is too small to rely on (he’s only got 20 AB in Pittsburgh) … and it’s all against the Pirates’ pitching staff.  I wouldn’t expect that to continue for the lefty in 2007.

The Pirates might not be packing much pop no matter where they play … but their opponents don’t have much pop in PNC either.