Home Run Derby

Time is running out. Opening Day is two days away and there’s Only Two Days left to join HomerDerby.com’s Home Run Derby Contest! Entries are flying in and we should easily surpass last season’s participation. Right now we’re at a 60% return rate from last season and there’s a lot of new names as well.

Some quick links for everyone …

• Official Rules
• Player Groups
• Player Profiles for Groups A, B, C, D, and E
  
• Ballpark Profiles (more coming soon)
• The Entry Form
• Comment registration

We’re getting some great traffic lately - so a big WELCOME! Except for the clowns who keep trying to spam the comments section of the Barry Bonds Gigantism post.

My last official act at poking fun at the Derek Jeter vs Clint Barmes debate started a couple of years ago (and if you believe that, I have some “lakefront property” to sell you). But in case you have not heard, on March 23rd, Clint Barmes was demoted to Triple A after losing out his starting shortstop role to Troy Tulowitzki, a 22 year old out of Long Beach State with 96 career at-bats under his belt.

And to make matters worse, Mr. Barmes is being linked in trade rumors to two teams, the Cubs and the Royals, which of course is a step below Triple-A. Meanwhile, in the Bronx, Derek Jeter is preparing for another .325, 120 R, 100 RBI year, and is revelling his status as the most talked about player in Homerun Derby despite never being selected.

UPDATE:My apologies to Rich for repeating his story from a week ago. I admit, piling on feels nice. This story deserved it’s own post, not to be buried under Tony LaRussa’s drunk ass.

I’m an afficionado of Opening Day - I Love It - as a Cub Fan I know it’s the only first pitch of the season that the Cubs are guaranteed to be in first place. I’ve been to many April games at Wrigley Field (one was snowed out - DoubleHeader the next day - WOOT!) and I have a semi-tradition of Opening Day at Wrigley with my Dad.

The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan recently wrote (registration required) about some Cub hitters having hot Arizona performances who then struggled in the first month of the regular season. He implies that Wrigley has a lot of blame for the poor performances …

They’ll then play 14 of their next 16 games at Wrigley Field, where the wind traditionally blows in during April, making it a pitching-friendly park.

Hmmm - I’ve always wondered about that … is it time for a deeper dive? You betcha. Let’s take a look at how friendly the Friendly Confines have been in April - and other months as well. All stats from 2004-6.

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Back from San Antonio … big props to Devine and Nick for keeping the site alive while I was gone. I couldn’t check the site at all - the Drury Plaza Hotel filtered the site as “drug/alcohol related content.” Stupid steroids posts.

Someone has started a site called the A-13 Project. It’s dedicated to “stopping the boos” directed at the main target of Yankee fans’ grumpiness that the Bronx Bombers haven’t hoisted the World Series trophy since they beat the Mets many a year ago … Alex Rodriguez. And this will do more damage to A-Rod’s Yankee image than it will help him. This is just another sign of the pending Baseball Apocalypse.

There’s a statue of Mark McGwire waiting to be unveiled - but it won’t see the light of day until public opinion about the slugger turns favorable and he makes the Hall of Fame. It’s pretty cool, however, and would look great next to the other Cardinals busts this guy has made. I think it’s being kept in the same warehouse that holds the Ark of the Covenant.

Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm are the new parents of twin girls. Garciaparra tried to get to Los Angeles (from the Dodgers’ camp in Florida) in time for the births, but was in the air (and on a speaker phone to the delivery room) during the deliveries. He’s expected to be back in the lineup when the Dodgers open the season Monday in Milwaukee. Scott Boras called to congratulate the couple and ask if their future soccer and/or softball and/or basketball phenoms had representation yet.
There’s less than four days left to enter the Home Run Derby contest. Don’t forget. And tell your friends.

Hopefully, you have perused my examination of AL pitching talent and the impact of the unbalanced schedule. I won’t take you through all the colorful commentary this time around and get right to the end result. Please keep in mind the liberties taken in the analysis: 1) I ignored interleague games, 2) I focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (NL exception is St. Louis where Kip Wells (2005 stats - 82 IP) and Anthony Reyes (85 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) I aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.

There is one other item I would like to point out. I have eliminated the entire Washington Nationals starting pitching staff from this analysis, because exactly ZERO of them had 100 IP in 2006 and only three of the six candidates even have 100 IP for their career. Whatever the over/under is on wins for the Nationals is, take the under. This team is going to be really bad. When Jerome Williams is having a tough time cracking a rotation consisting of John Patterson (423 career innings), Shawn Hill (45.2 career innings), Jason Simontacchi (285 career innings), Matt Chico (0 career innings) and Jason Bergmann (84.1 career innings) , you know you are in trouble, because it tells me the team would rather face the unknown than using an ex-cub. This team will challenge for the most losses in the history of MLB.

It would appear that picking slugger in the NL East is a good bet, since the division has a poor GB/FB ratio comparatively to the other divisions and a higher HR/9 rate.  And keep in mind, these stats don’t even count the horrible nationals staff, so those ratios are a bit too “rosy.” And I do realize that RFK ranks number 28 in Rich’s ballpark chart. However, the Nationals do play 81 games on the road, and this pitching staff just plain sucks.

Sammy Sosa – 14 HR, 27.14 AB/HR, 102 G

The HR’s this guy is hitting in spring training are earning frequent flyer miles, and he looks as ripped as he was in his 1998 66 HR season where he battled McGwire to the final weekend. Sammy has a lot to prove coming back to the majors. With a contract filled with a lot of incentives based on AB’s, he plans on earning his money. Having already been added to the 40-man roster, he is well on his way to earning the primary DH spot, batting fifth in the lineup at Arlington.

Mike Piazza – 22 HR, 18.13 AB/HR, 126 G

The only question that one should have for Piazza is how long will his adjustment period to the AL take. He is a veteran hitter, and a workhorse on and off the field. Although he is getting up there in age, playing DH with a lineup that carries some decent power might give Piazza the edge he needs to return to his 30+ HR seasons. He also has “got more to play for,” with the recent birth of his first daughter with former Playboy Playmate, Alicia Rickter.

David Wright– 26 HR, 22.38 AB/HR, 154 G.

After blasting 16 HR’s in round one of the 2006 MLB HR Derby, David Wright has shown us what kind of power he possesses. He is he Mets new poster boy, and rumored to be a hit in the clubhouse as well, he hit .311 with 26 homers, and 116 RBI in 2006 and his numbers are only expected to get better. Everyone out there should have this guy as a potential final choice for Group E.

Grady Sizemore 28 HR, 23.39 AB/HR, 162 G.

One of MLB’s most talented rising stars. He is a gifted center fielder, with plenty of left handed power to hit the fences in Jacobs field, combined with some nice protection in the line-up. Last year, at the age of 24, he connected for 28 homers and 53 doubles while batting .290 and leading the AL in runs scored at 134. Can you imagine what this guy will be doing when he is in his prime the next few years?

Prince Fielder – 28 HR, 20.32 AB/HR, 157 G.

Part of an intriguing mix of young talent up in Milwaukee, Prince Fielder has had a lifetime a hitting lessons coming from “Big Daddy” Cecil. He has .300-30-100-100 potential hitting in the number 3 spot in the lineup. Now, if Brewer’s Management can get him on whatever diet Big Papi went on during the off-season, there is no telling how many he can belt out this year…

Chris Duncan – 22 HR, 12.72AB/HR, 90 G.

This guy is not one to be taken lightly. He did not get much playing time in 2006 due to his poor defense in the outfield, but when he did, he made it count. He had 280 AB with 22 HR’s (12.72 AB/HR WOW!) and is expected to be a regular starter in left field this season. Batting second with a veteran group of sluggers behind him, he has extensive potential. Taking off-season batting practice with Mark McGwire cannot hurt his hopes at hitting the long balls either.

For my maiden front page post, I thought I would take a different slant to Richie’s decree to have a better informed group of HR Derby participants. We have all benefited from the the quick look at ballpark statistics and the deeper dives on a few of those ballparks. Obviously, where the fences sit and the environmental factors play a huge role, but we also must consider who is throwing the ball. Today, we take a look at the American League. On Wednesday, I will complete the task with a look at the senior circuit.

My theory is, because of the unbalanced schedule, it is vital to understand the quality of the pitching staffs that your sluggers will face most often. Remember, teams face their division rivals at least 18 times each year, other league rivals at least 7 times, their key interleague rival 6 times, and other scheduled interleague rivals 3 times. For the purposes of keeping this analysis simple, I have done the following: 1)ignored interleague games, 2) focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (AL exception is Toronto where Chacin (87 IP) and Okha (97 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) Aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.

A Quick look at HR rate by starters would show three teams with the worst rate by far:

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Hank Blalock – 16 HR, 36.93 AB/HR, 152 G

Once thought to be the future of the Texas Rangers, the youngest player in the majors when he made his debut in 2002 has shown some serious slumping in his batting. Can his off-season shoulder surgery get him back to his All-Star credentials (2004 season 32/110/.276), or will he have another season batting .216 against lefties?

Jonny Gomes – 20HR, 19.25 AB/HR, 117 G

Funny Name? He’s not laughing. He opened the 2006 season with 11 HR’s in April, but shoulder troubles got the worst of his season, leading to season ending surgery in September. He seems to be coming back strong, losing some of his gut and gaining some upper body strength, and will likely anchor a strong young lineup at DH.

J.D. Drew – 20 HR, 24.70 AB/HR, 146G

Are we starting to see a shoulder injury, coming back healthy trend here??? A change into the lineup out in Boston, with a favorable porch for Left Handed batters and the protection of Manny and Papi in the lineup may be just what J.D. Drew needs for another big season. $9.4 Million in the bank doesn’t hurt either.

Garrett Atkins - 29 HR, 20.75 AB/HR, 157 G

A powerful player coming into his prime at age 27, batting in the bandbox that is Coors Field, many projections for 2007 have him as a .300/30/110 batter this year. His solid start this year in Spring Training may just show his monster season last year (.329/29/120) was no fluke. He has the potential of taking Todd Helton’s #3 spot in the lineup, protected by Matt Holliday and Helton behind him.

Barry Bonds – 26 HR, 14.12 AB/HR, 130 G

Excuse me Paula, but your arms seem excessively huge. This guy is on a mission to break Hank Aaron’s HR Record this year. With players like Howard, Pujols, and A-Rod also eying that mark in their futures, he doesn’t want to pass it, but demolish it. Are pitchers going to give him the chance, or will it be another Major-League record year for walks in 2007? He is absolutely crushing the ball this Spring, but is definitely and injury risk at 42 years old.

Jeff Francoeur – 29 HR, 22.45 AB/HR, 162G

Young and healthy, he played all 162 games last season in ATL, consistently improving throughout the season. With only 23 walks in 651 at bats in 2006, he must learn some patience to see the HR pitches. Improvements made in the off-season are shining through in Spring training, batting over .390 with 3 HR and 8 RBI.

Touch ‘em All has nothing to do with Michael Jackson and the children of the world.  It’s HomerDerby.com’s new Random Baseball News dump.

 Tony LaRussa, manager of the defending World Series Champion St Louis Cardinals, was pulled over after he fell asleep at a stop light in the Cardinals’ Spring Training home of Jupiter, FL.  He was charged with a DUI with a blood alcohol level of .093 at about 4AM this morning.  Florida’s limit is .08 - which makes me wonder - besides a high schooler who just had his first Mickey’s, who passes out with a blood alcohol level of .093?  Deadspin (as always) does a great job on this - check out the map.

Ken Griffey, Jr. will be playing Right Field this season for the Reds.  It’s probably a smart call - it might even keep Griffey healthier with a shorter range to cover.

Jim Edmonds looks like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.  He’ll be backing up at the crack of the bat so he can make his unnecessary highlight reaal dives in no time.

Justin Morneau can’t parlay his 2007 AL MVP into a long-term deal with the Twins.  I believe the Twins know what they’re doing here - four months does not guarantee this guy a big payday.

And HomerDerby’s favorite whipping boy, Clint Barmes, lost the Rockies’ Spring battle for starting shortstop to rookie Troy Tulowitzki.  Barmes could start the season at Triple-A or be traded.  Supposedly the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers are interested in Barmes as a utility man.  Personally - I think there’s a team that needs him as much as he needs them - the Royals.

I’m headed off on Spring Break, but the site will be in the capable hands of Nick the Greek, Devine’s Demolition Crew, and Groovitude (the webmaster).