Home Run Derby

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It’s only a matter of time until the ultimate one-sided HomerDerby debate starts back up …

  I had a great April/May 2005.  I was the best Shortstop in Major League Baseball.  I was gonna be the NL Rookie of the Year.  

    You couldn’t carry my groceries.

JASON BAY 35 HR, 16.29 AB/HR, 159 G

BILL HALL 35 HR, 15.34 AB/HR, 148 G

Our first HomerDerby newcomer for 2007. Hall doubled his career HR high in 2006 and did not seem to be affected when slugger Carlos Lee was dealt to Texas. Signed a 4-year deal in the offseason and will move from 2^nd Base to Centerfield. Hall absolutely crushed the NL Central last year, as 25 of his 35 Home Runs were hit against division foes.  Pink Bat!

NICK SWISHER  35 HR, 15.89 AB/HR, 157 G

Last April, Swisher began his sophomore season smokin’ hot with 10 HR and an 8.00 AB/HR ratio. Cooled off a bit in May and then went AWOL in June and July (3 HR each). Heated up in September before he flamed out in the playoffs. Probably good for 35+ HR again, unless he gets distracted by his new girlfriend, former Raiderette and model Danielle Gamba.

RICHIE SEXSON 34 HR, 17.38 AB/HR, 158 G

People had concerns about Sexson’s power numbers when he moved to Seattle and the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Two years later with 39 HR in Safeco alone, Sexson is still a force to be reckoned with in HomerDerby.  Seems to hit better in odd numbered years, hitting 45/45/39 HR in 2001-2003-2005.  Could 2007 be another big season?  At 6′8″ he’s the tallest player in Home Run Derby - that’s a big strike zone..

JUSTIN MORNEAU 34 HR, 17.41 AB/HR, 157 G

Finally put it all together last season after a few years of excruciating inconsistency and was named AL MVP.  Became the first Twin to hit 30 HR since Kirby Puckett in 1986.  His slugging seemed to peak early last year, hitting 22 HR by the All-Star Break but almost completely vanished in September, hitting only two round-trippers down the stretch.  Ask Nick the Greek about that. 

MATT HOLLIDAY 34 HR, 17.71 AB/HR, 155 G

Another HomerDerby newcomer, Holliday smacked 34 Home Runs last season, 22 of which were at Coors Field. He doubled his career average of 17 HR in 2006 and looks to be ready to keep producing at the higher level. He’s an excellent contact hitter with good power, which could translate into being the new face of the Rockies now (replacing Todd Helton).

MARK TEIXEIRA 33 HR, 19.03 AB/HR, 162 G

A lot of players started out hot last year and cooled off after the All-Star Break - Teixeira went the other way. After hitting a frigid 9 HR before the midseason classic, Tex absolutely turned it on to the tune of 24 HR and an 11.46 AB/HR. Could easily turn it around and be back in Group A next season.  It’s a contract year too (arbitration eligile).  Might not finish the season with the Rangers.

VLADIMIR GUERRERO 33 HR, 18.39 AB/HR, 156 G

Consistency. Has hit 30 HR in eight of the last nine seasons. Played a full season despite knee soreness and did not require surgery in the offseason. The biggest issue facing Vlad in 2007 is the Angels failure to get any real threats (Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez were all targets) to protect his bat in the lineup.  Instead they got Shea Hillenbrand.

RAUL IBANEZ  33 HR, 18.97 AB/HR, 159 G

Where the heck did that come from? From 2001-2005 Ibanez averaged 18 HR and a 27.24 AB/HR ratio. Last season he hit a career high 33 HR with ratio of 18.97. Was 2006 a breakout season or a fluke? I can’t see Ibanez hitting 30 Home Runs this season. Odds are that Ibanez will be a 2007 HomerDerby orphan.

VERNON WELLS 32 HR, 19.09 AB/HR, 154 G

Was well on his way to a career year last season (21 first half HR) but slowed down after the break (11 HR). Inked a big 7-year deal in the offseason to stay with Toronto, where the Rogers Centre has been very HR-Friendly.  Will the money affect his drive? The third Blue Jay in HomerDerby’s top 30, which should imply he’ll have some good pitches to hit.