Home Run Derby

Things just haven’t been going too well for Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano this season, have they?

• Couldn’t get a contract extension done before the season started.
• Had his traditional Opening Day meltdown (5 IP, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 ER, 2K)
• Cheesed off the Brewers when he said ”the offense of the Reds is better“
• Hasn’t been throwing as hard (90-92 MPH vs 94-5 MPH last year)
• Not having a good contract year (5-5, 5.62 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 1.59 HR/9)
• Got in a fistfight with his catcher after another poor outing … anyone hear about that?

However, all that is about to change.  Carlos Zambrano guaranteed he’ll throw 98 MPH today vs the Milwaukee Brewers.

Home Run Derby has figured out how he thinks he’s going to do it …

What’s actually going to happen is that Zambrano will try to overthrow and his arm will fall off.

Now you might think that I’m saying that Roger Clemens is a chicken.

Why would you think that? Because he’s going to start his first 2007 game versus the Sox (the White ones) who are currently a game under .500 and not the other Sox (the Red ones) who have the best record in baseball … and some unfinished history with the Rocket?

Okay … so I am calling him a chicken … and here’s a clip which shows Roger Clemens’ history with chicken …

Who the heck knew Roger Clemens had a Chicken restuarant in the 90’s?

And don’t forget … in another case of “The Simpsons Did it Already” … Roger Clemens was hypnotized into thinking he was a chicken the night before that big rivalry softball game. And he couldn’t pitch.

I’m told this thing is supposed to be a “Celebriduck,” but it looks more like a Celebricluck to me.

CHICKEN

Since Roger Clemens is about to return to baseball …

Here’s The Rocket in a delightfully horrible commercial for NESN back in 1989 …

hat tip: email from Bret

STATS UPDATED: 4/25/07

We’re two and a half weeks into the 2007 season and Ryan Howard (Home Run Derby’s resident banner silhouette) is currently batting .207 with a 29.00 AB/HR Ratio.  Prior to this season his (albeit short) career averages were .304 and 11.37 AB/HR.  So what’s up with the kid?

Going into this season, a lot of us in the Derby feared that opposing pitchers wouldn’t give Howard anything to hit - that they’d learned from 2006 and wouldn’t let him beat them.  Let’s go to the stats …

So far this season, Howard has seen 325 pitches - of which only 151 (46.5%) have been inside the strike zone.  The average strike percentage for pitchers so far in 2007 is between 61% and 62%.  So it seems that our fears have come to fruition - Howard is seeing strikes about 25% less than the average MLB hitter. 

The fewer balls that are thrown in Ryan Howard’s wheelhouse, the fewer Home Runs he’s going to hit.

He’s also walked 20 times with 6 intentional passes in 16 games so far this season.  Last year, Howard walked in 15.3% of his Plate Appearances.  This season, he’s walked 25.6% of the times he’s come to the plate.  In comparison, mallwalker Barry Bonds has a 27% walk percentage this season. 

When Howard does get the ball into play, he has a .286 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Last season, his BABIP was .363.

And to make matters worse …  Howard hurt himself in yesterday’s 13 inning game (in the 10th but stayed in the game) with a strain of the ligament that connects the Tibia and Fibula (lower leg just below the knee).  He’ll have an MRI today.

Update: Howard did not have an MRI and the injury is no longer considered serious.

J.C. Bradbury writes a very interesting Op-Ed in the New York Times on what could be driving the recent fall of many of Baseball’s most hallowed records … MLB expansion. We talk a lot about steroids and such - but if you think about it - he’s probably on target here …

Expansion abruptly reversed the trend; today, the variance in quality of major league pitchers, based on E.R.A., is at an all-time high. By letting in the riffraff for baseball’s elite to exploit, expansion increased the likelihood of great achievements. Without even bringing steroids into the discussion, it is no surprise that some already fine hitters performed even better after the early 1990s.

Baseball recently expanded in 1993 from 26 to 28 teams with the addition of the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies and again in 1998 to 30 teams with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Bradbury only hints at the statistical effect however … let’s look at some numbers.

The Offensive Explosion that took place after the first expansion in 1993 is staggering.  24 Triple A pitchers started getting regular work in the bigs and Batting increased 5% while Slugging jumped 10%.  The MLB’s big ticket stat, Home Runs, went crazy as the AB/HR ratio dropped by nearly 24%.  ERA shot up 17%.  Scoring was up all over.

The 1998 expansion didn’t affect the overall league to the extent it did in 1993, but 1998 was the year of the Home Run for sluggers Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and it opened the gates for seasons by individual players which were previously thought to be impossible.  Roger Maris’ 61-HR record (which had stood for 37 years) was broken six times from 1998-2001.  70 Home Runs were hit twice in that span.  And in case you’re wondering, yes, Maris’ record was set in an expansion year as the AL increased from 8 to 10 teams.

Expansion is likely not the only reason for the jump and other factors have to be considered …

• advances in bat and ball technology
• bigger and stronger players
• performance enhancing drugs
• less small ball and more reliance on the 3-run Homer
• new stadiums that are more like NASA-funded launching pads

But when you look at one year to the next, Baseball offense took off overnight between 1992 and 1993.  Which leads me to believe that expansion was at least the catalyst. 

 

Hopefully, you have perused my examination of AL pitching talent and the impact of the unbalanced schedule. I won’t take you through all the colorful commentary this time around and get right to the end result. Please keep in mind the liberties taken in the analysis: 1) I ignored interleague games, 2) I focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (NL exception is St. Louis where Kip Wells (2005 stats - 82 IP) and Anthony Reyes (85 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) I aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.

There is one other item I would like to point out. I have eliminated the entire Washington Nationals starting pitching staff from this analysis, because exactly ZERO of them had 100 IP in 2006 and only three of the six candidates even have 100 IP for their career. Whatever the over/under is on wins for the Nationals is, take the under. This team is going to be really bad. When Jerome Williams is having a tough time cracking a rotation consisting of John Patterson (423 career innings), Shawn Hill (45.2 career innings), Jason Simontacchi (285 career innings), Matt Chico (0 career innings) and Jason Bergmann (84.1 career innings) , you know you are in trouble, because it tells me the team would rather face the unknown than using an ex-cub. This team will challenge for the most losses in the history of MLB.

It would appear that picking slugger in the NL East is a good bet, since the division has a poor GB/FB ratio comparatively to the other divisions and a higher HR/9 rate.  And keep in mind, these stats don’t even count the horrible nationals staff, so those ratios are a bit too “rosy.” And I do realize that RFK ranks number 28 in Rich’s ballpark chart. However, the Nationals do play 81 games on the road, and this pitching staff just plain sucks.

For my maiden front page post, I thought I would take a different slant to Richie’s decree to have a better informed group of HR Derby participants. We have all benefited from the the quick look at ballpark statistics and the deeper dives on a few of those ballparks. Obviously, where the fences sit and the environmental factors play a huge role, but we also must consider who is throwing the ball. Today, we take a look at the American League. On Wednesday, I will complete the task with a look at the senior circuit.

My theory is, because of the unbalanced schedule, it is vital to understand the quality of the pitching staffs that your sluggers will face most often. Remember, teams face their division rivals at least 18 times each year, other league rivals at least 7 times, their key interleague rival 6 times, and other scheduled interleague rivals 3 times. For the purposes of keeping this analysis simple, I have done the following: 1)ignored interleague games, 2) focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (AL exception is Toronto where Chacin (87 IP) and Okha (97 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) Aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.

A Quick look at HR rate by starters would show three teams with the worst rate by far:

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