Home Run Derby

Sammy Sosa hit his eleventh Home Run of the season tonight.

It was also his 599th career Home Run. He’s about to become only the fifth Major League player in history to hit 600 freaking Home Runs.

The Fanhouse raises a question … where is the fanfare?

However impressive 600 Home Runs might be, it’s small potatoes compared to the biggest Home Run chase of them all … and that’s happening every time Barry Bonds strides to the dish in his quest to surpass Hank Aaron’s 755 Home Runs. The controversy surrounding Bonds doesn’t help Sosa’s cause in redirecting the TV cameras which chronicle Bonds every scratch at the plate.

So Sosa is a victim of timing and scale. But he’s also a victim of his own actions - which have alienated him from baseball fans.

For years in Chicago, Sosa put the “ME” in Sammy. And even though Cub fans ate up his Home Runs like hot dogs … his act was wearing thin after the team couldn’t consistently put together a winner despite his crazy 5-year Home Run spree.

Have I mentioned the corked bat incident in 2003 yet? Any credibility Sosa might have had to keep his name from being labelled an alleged steroid user went out the window right there. If he’s cheated in one facet of the game; what would stop him from cheating another way?

Then Sosa was forced to leave Chicago with his image in shambles after bailing on the Cubs on the last day of the disastrous 2004 season. In a typical Cub move, management destroyed Sosa’s image (and trade value) by releasing the video of Sosa leaving the ballpark early.

And in early 2005, before a Congressional hearing into steroid use in Baseball … Sosa forgot how to speak the English language that he had mastered while in Chicago. There’s a million interviews to prove it.

And then, Sosa spent all of 2006 away from Baseball after a lousy season in Baltimore - which made most people think he was no longer a going concern …

… only to resurface with the Texas Rangers - who are the worst team in baseball this season (yes, even worse than the Nationals) with even worse national TV exposure. Since no one outside of Texas cares about the Rangers … no one sees much of anything about Sosa on a regular basis.

If the fans cared, there would still be spotlights for Sammy Sosa. But through his own actions, he’s alienated himself from the fans, which has made covering his career less of a priority for ESPN and the rest of the baseball media.

Back in early May, Barry Bonds was going nuts. He was hitting the cover off the ball and had moved to within 11 Home Runs of the Career HR record held by Hank Aaron.

During April and early May, you couldn’t escape pictures of Bonds rounding the bases at AT&T Park underneath a giant 3-digit number beginning with 7. It looked like Bonds was going send ESPN into “All Barry All the Time” mode in June, when he was projected to break the record.

But since then something’s happened … or more truthfully … hasn’t happened. Barry Bonds has stopped hitting Home Runs. ESPN doesn’t even cut away during other baseball games to show his at-bats anymore. Bud Selig has surely been doing the “happy dance” in his office since he’s not worrying about players with big heads as much as players with big mouths (Sheff and Giambi).

How big of a slump is Bonds in right now? Let’s compare …

Wow. Not only does Bonds have no power lately, he’s been hitting the ball at Mario Mendoza levels. He’s also being walked slightly more often, but that’s probably due to teams adjusting to his Apr/May stats.

Let’s split up that slump and see if there’s any trends within it.

Bonds’ hitting stats have improved recently, but not by a lot. And even though he was being walked a LOT during the first half of the slump, his walks are down significantly in the second half of the slump. Teams backed off him in the first part of the slump - are teams challenging him more since he’s been in the slump? Looks like it.

The Giants have been on the road most of for most of Bonds’ slump and are about to finish a ten-day ten-game road trip. Has it affected Old Man Bonds?

Bonds’ one Home Run came in San Fran (skewing his home power stats) - but he’s actually hit better while on the road (other than the strikeouts). He’s been walked more often on the road, which one might expect - as other teams fans’ (and possibly MLB) might not want to see Bonds break the HR record in their park.

Also - it’s been published that Bonds has been plagued by some shin splints and fatigue lately. Bonds started 20 of the 23 games he played in during the slump. He didn’t miss many games during the early season … perhaps his 42 year old body needs a break.

By the way, Baseball Prospectus now projects Bonds to break the record in Mid-July, either at home against the Dodgers or against the Cubs at Wrigley.

Wow.  Mr. April, Alex Rodriguez, did it again, going 4 for 5 and smacking two more home runs in tonight’s game vs the Devil Rays. The Home Runs set a new American League record for Homers in April (14) - surpassing Ken Griffey Jr’s 13 hit back in 1997. A-Rod also tied the all-time MLB April mark of 14 set last season by Al bert Pujols. With six games remaining in the month.

It’s also the fastest anyone has hit 13 Home Runs. Let alone 14.

But the Yankees lost their fourth straight game and dropped to 8-10 - Fourth Place in the American League East behind Boston.

A-Rod can’t pitch, can he?

Barry Bonds smacked his 6th Home Run of the season on Sunday afternoon. It was his 740th career Home Run, moving him within 15 Home Runs of Hank Aaron’s all-time career mark of 755 Home Runs.

Bonds currently has a AB/HR ratio of 7.67. He’s averaging just over three At-Bats a Game through the Giants’ 17 games (he’s played 15) so far this season.

Let’s extrapolate. At Bonds’ current pace, he’ll need about 123 AB to hit 16 more Home Runs and set a new Record at 756. That’s about 40 games. Provided that he continues to hit Home Runs at his current pace and sits most of the Giants’ day games, Bonds will be in the vicinity of 755 and 756 in mid-June.

• June 11-13: vs Toronto
• June 15-17: at Boston (VERY short RF porch)
• June 18-20: at Milwaukee
• June 22-24: vs NY Yankees

Make your travel plans accordingly.

The most baseball drama would come if Bonds is sitting on breaking the record before heading to Milwaukee for games vs the Commisioner’s beloved Brewers and where Aaron used to play. Selig’s head might explode if he had to preside over the eventual HR torch-passing in his home town.

Of course, Bonds could prefer to surpass Aaron in San Francisco in front of his fans rather than in front of a crowd which could be hostile.

Every year - some Home Run hitters are always knocking on the door of immortality. This year we’ve got a number of HomerDerby players who could join some very exclusive names. Let’s kick off a new category which we’ll track throughout the season…

300 Home Run Club

• Todd Helton (286 Career HR)
• Craig Biggio (281 HR)
• Ivan Rodriguez (277 HR)
• Richie Sexson (273 HR)

Helton’s a shoo-in. He’s looked good in March and could be primed for a comback. Biggio can probably do just enough to make 300. Pudge doesn’t have enough since he lost that weight. Sexson is a mortal lock unless he gets injured.

400 Home Run Club

• Chipper Jones (357 Career HR)
• Jim Edmonds (350 HR)
• Jason Giambi (350 HR)

Not this season gentlemen. Jones is battling little injuries and the season hasn’t even started. Edmonds isn’t going to be 100% until sometime in the season and Giambi won’t hit 50 with the Yankees.

500 Home Run Club

• Frank Thomas (487 Career HR)
• Jim Thome (472 HR)
• Manny Ramirez (470 HR)
• Alex Rodriguez (464 HR)

And we will have a minimum of three new members to the 500 Club. The Big Hurt and Thome might hit enough HR if they didn’t play a single road game. Ramirez has been good for 30-plus HR the last decade. A-Rod should hit 40 in his last season in the Bronx.

600 Home Run Club

• Sammy Sosa (588 Career HR)
• Ken Griffey, Jr. (563 HR)

This is why Slammin’ Sammy came back folks - for a shot at being only the fifth player in MLB history to swat 600 HR. He’s not only on the 40-man in Texas - he’s on the opening day roster. Junior on the other hand, might be on the DL come April and for who knows how many months after that …

Baseball Immortality - 756 Home Runs

• Barry Bonds (734 Career Home Runs)

It’s a record that has stood for nearly my entire life and all of my baseball life. I have a hard time imagining anyone being the all-time Home Run Champ than the man my father cheered for in Wisconsin when he was a member of the Milwaukee Braves. The Hammer. Hank Aaron.

But I think it’s going to happen.