Home Run Derby

The best player in baseball has decided to opt out of his contract and test the free agent waters, despite the threat of Yankee dollars not being available to him if he did exercise that opt out (boy is it nice to see someone put the Yankees in their place - it brings a smile to my face). 

That announcement came during Game 4 of the World Series, much to the Chagrin of MLB and Red Sox Nation. 

The response to the timing of the announcement has been terse and directed mainly at Uber-agent, Scott Boras, also known as Darth Vader in the baseball world.

Look at the reaction of Bob DuPuy, MLB COO:

“We were very disappointed that Scott Boras would try to upstage our premier baseball event of the season with his announcement”

Boo-Frickin-Hoo, Bob. 

(more…)

STATS UPDATED: 4/25/07

We’re two and a half weeks into the 2007 season and Ryan Howard (Home Run Derby’s resident banner silhouette) is currently batting .207 with a 29.00 AB/HR Ratio.  Prior to this season his (albeit short) career averages were .304 and 11.37 AB/HR.  So what’s up with the kid?

Going into this season, a lot of us in the Derby feared that opposing pitchers wouldn’t give Howard anything to hit - that they’d learned from 2006 and wouldn’t let him beat them.  Let’s go to the stats …

So far this season, Howard has seen 325 pitches - of which only 151 (46.5%) have been inside the strike zone.  The average strike percentage for pitchers so far in 2007 is between 61% and 62%.  So it seems that our fears have come to fruition - Howard is seeing strikes about 25% less than the average MLB hitter. 

The fewer balls that are thrown in Ryan Howard’s wheelhouse, the fewer Home Runs he’s going to hit.

He’s also walked 20 times with 6 intentional passes in 16 games so far this season.  Last year, Howard walked in 15.3% of his Plate Appearances.  This season, he’s walked 25.6% of the times he’s come to the plate.  In comparison, mallwalker Barry Bonds has a 27% walk percentage this season. 

When Howard does get the ball into play, he has a .286 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Last season, his BABIP was .363.

And to make matters worse …  Howard hurt himself in yesterday’s 13 inning game (in the 10th but stayed in the game) with a strain of the ligament that connects the Tibia and Fibula (lower leg just below the knee).  He’ll have an MRI today.

Update: Howard did not have an MRI and the injury is no longer considered serious.

Time for the annual Derby breakdown of player picks.  Interesting trends this season …

Group A is really top heavy this season with at least one of the three big guns (Pujols, Ortiz, Howard) on all but one roster.  Seventeen rosters have all three.  Curious that last season’s HR leader only tied for the 6th most picked player in the Derby.

Group B has a similar trend with three big names before the dropoff.  Adam Dunn finally gets some respect in this Derby.  This Group also holds the Derby’s only orphan - Jason Giambi. 

Group C is much more competitively distributed and could easily be the tipping point for the winners this season.  This was a really tough group to just choose three guys.

Group D is ruled by Derrek Lee who probably was Group C material in his comeback bid.  Miguel Cabrera was also a value pick here too.  But I should not have elevated Matsui and Griffey Jr. to this group.

Group E is always my favorite.  A few picks that I expected due to their hype in the SportsMedia and Fantasy Baseball communities (Fielder, Atkins, Sizemore, and Wright) offset by the ones that come in out of left field like Teahen, Markais and Hawpe.

I’m not a big believer in any correlation between Spring Training stats and Regular Season stats, but in the past two seasons the player who hit the most Home Runs in Spring Training went on to wear the MLB Home Run Crown after camp broke …

• 2005 - Andruw Jones (10 Spring HR; 51 MLB HR)
• 2006 - Ryan Howard (11 Spring HR; 58 MLB HR)

Let’s look at our early candidates to see who will have extra pressure on them to keep that streak alive …

• R Braun, MIL - 5 HR, 6.8 AB/HR
• J Lane, HOU - 5 HR, 8.4 AB/HR
• B Bonds, SF - 4 HR, 5.8 AB/HR
• V Wells, TOR - 4 HR, 7.8 AB/HR
• K Greene, SD - 4 HR, 9.0 AB/HR
• B Eldred, PIT - 4 HR, 9.3 AB/HR
• B Hawpe, COL - 4 HR, 9.3 AB/HR
• T Sledge, SD - 4 HR, 10.3 AB/HR
• B Hall, MIL - 4 HR, 10.5 AB/HR
• B Phillips, CIN - 4 HR, 11.3 AB/HR
• J Reyes, NYM - 4 HR, 11.8 AB/HR
• C Duncan, STL - 4 HR, 12.8 AB/HR

Nobody’s exactly separating themselves from the pack … I look at the early HR leaders and I don’t think there’s any way one of these guys is your 2007 HR Champ.  Braun just got sent to the minors - improve your defense, kid.  Lane has to get his job back (and keep it) first.  Bonds gets pitched around too much, doesn’t have the protection in the lineup he once did, and might only want 22 HR anyway.  Vernon Wells has the skill and protection, but he just signed a big contract, and there might be too many big bats in the Jays’ lineup.  You can scratch any PIT and SD players because of their low-HR homes.  Hawpe, Phillips, Hall, and Reyes - it’s not gonna happen.

Last Spring, Jim Thome and Ryan Howard got hot late.  Let’s see if someone of their caliber steps up over the next 10 days.

Alfonso Soriano struck out in his first at-bat of Spring Training.  The good news for Cub fans is that he saw 8 pitches during the At-Bat.  April seems so far away … which is probably a good thing right now.

Just to keep you all informed in group A.

Per the advice of the Red Sox, David Ortiz changed his offseason workouts and reported to camp looking a little more threatening to AL pitchers …

Ortiz arrived in Fort Myers with less weight around the waist and more muscle in the chest and shoulder area.  

“It feels good, even a little more powerful,” Ortiz said of his swing.

Exclusive Spring Training photo of Big Papi. 

Pic from Boston Dirt Dogs.

RYAN HOWARD – 58 HR, 10.02 AB/HR, 159 G

Followed up a ROY Award in 2005 with an MVP in his first full season in the Big Leagues, playing on a team which contended for the NL WildCard into the final week of the season.  In the BandBox that is Citizens’ Bank Park, Howard has huge potential to hit 60 HR.  However, Howard’s stretch run was anything but great (HR Derby-wise) as he only hit 2 HR over the last 21 games as pitchers stopped giving him anything to hit – will the Bonds treatment continue in 07?   

DAVID ORTIZ – 54 HR, 10.33 AB/HR, 151 G

Big Papi has hit more HR over the last 3 seasons than anyone else, and is possibly the most clutch HR hitter in recent memory.  Has increased his HR output for seven straight years.  A power hitting lefty who’s perfectly suited to blast homers to the short right field porch in Fenway. 

ALBERT PUJOLS– 49 HR, 10.92 AB/HR, 143 G

Plays at a different level than almost everyone else in MLB.  Pujols helped christen the new Busch with a World Series title in 2006.  He thought he should have been the NL MVP (and he’s right), which could be a motivating factor in 2007.  He will enter spring training seemingly free of some minor injuries from the past few years.  He’ll also play 2007 as a US citizen after having aced the citizenship test earlier this month.  

 ALFONSO SORIANO – 46 HR, 14.07 AB/HR, 159 G

Has very quietly averaged 30 HR and 30 Steals during the 21^st Century.  Quieted a lot of skeptics in 2006 while hitting 24 HR in pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium.  Could hit 30 at Wrigley alone.  The only question is when (not if) he ends his season after colliding with Cliff Floyd in the Cubs’ outfield.  Reported early to Cubs’ camp. 

LANCE BERKMAN – 45 HR, 11.91AB/HR, 152 G

Stepped up HUGE for the Astros last season, with career-highs in HR and RBI after averaging 26 HR the previous three seasons.  Could easily match 2006 total with Carlos Lee protecting him in the lineup.   

JERMAINE DYE – 44 HR, 12.25 AB/HR, 146 G

The 2005 World Series MVP had a career year in 2006, and unless the White Sox extend his contract, Dye will be playing for the big money in 2007.  He would be wise to re-sign with the Sox, as he’s dialed up 75 HR with 205 RBI in two big seasons at US Cellular Field. 

TRAVIS HAFNER – 42 HR, 10.81 AB/HR, 129 G

Pronk hit 42 HR in 2006 while missing all of September with a broken hand.  The injury (which did not require surgery) should be healed in time for Spring Training.  Tied a MLB record with six Grand Slams in 2006.  A tremendous slugger, the only question is whether he can play a full season - he’s never had more than 500 AB.  If he can, he’s probably good for 45 HR. 

JIM THOME – 42 HR, 11.67 AB/HR, 143 G

Returns to his rightful spot in Group A as he put his injury-plagued 2005 behind him and won the 2006 AL Comeback player of the year.  Slowed down after a torrid start last season and missed a little time last year.  Expected to miss some games here and there as his 36-year-old back is always a concern (but whose isn’t?).  Has hit 40 HR five of the last six seasons - so plan accordingly.   

ANDRUW JONES – 41 HR, 13.78 AB/HR, 156 G

The 2005 HR champion, Jones is entering a contract year and has lost 20 pounds in an effort to relieve some pressure on his sore knees.  Perennial Gold Glove CF.  Has averaged 46 HR the last two seasons and should probably hit about that many this season.

CARLOS BELTRAN – 41 HR, 12.44 AB/HR, 140 G

Truly improved in his Sophomore season in the Big Apple, more than doubling his HR totals in fewer at-bats.  Set career-highs in HR and RBI.  Potentially an injury risk, so count on 35-40 HR. 

Who is the silhouette in the HomerDerby.com logo?

A “Super Prize” goes to the first person to post the right answer in the comments. That means you’ll have to register to be eligible to win the prize.

 And we have our winner … Bob McT correctly guessed Ryan Howard after Nick the Greek mentioned that the silhouette was batting left-handed. 

Bob wins a $5 Gift Certificate to Buffalo Wild Wings !