Home Run Derby

Stop me if you’ve heard this before …

During the first two months of the season, a young first baseman takes the National League by storm, putting up MVP power numbers in his second season.  He bats around .295 while slugging in the .600’s with 40+ RBI and nearly 20 Home Runs.

Last season (2006) it was Ryan Howard.  This season (2007) it’s Prince Fielder.  Their comparative April-May stats are remarkably similar …

If things stay the same, Fielder should be expected to continue crushing NL pitching and (like Howard last season) roll to his first National League MVP award.  Especially if the Brewers stay in playoff contention.

However, the question becomes whether or not Prince Fielder will continue to see pitches to hit.

Last September, teams stopped pitching to Howard when the Phillies were making a serious run at the playoffs (via the WildCard) and his walk totals increased every month from June forward.

He only hit two (2) Home Runs over his last 21 games.  This season that has continued (as we discussed earlier) as Howard is seeing fewer pitches over the plate this season and is way behind his 2006 pace. 

I would expect that to start happening to Prince Fielder.  I think JJ Hardy (Fielder’s unexpected protection in the Milwaukee lineup) will regress as NL pitching staff adjust to him and therefore fewer opportunities will be given to Fielder. I also think another team from the NL Central will make a run at the Brewers. 

The closer we get to playoff baseball in 2007, fewer pitchers are going to throw anything over the plate for the Brewers’ First Baseman.  And Fielder will get less chance to crush one out.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 5th, 2007 at 10:00 am and is filed under 2007 MLB, Stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.