Home Run Derby

The Recent post about future Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio and the all-time Hit by pitch record got me thinking … Biggio’s close to 3,000 hits with 2,951.  He’s also close to the 288 HBP Record with 283. 

Which milestone will he cross first? 

Let’s see … Biggio leads the Astros with a .259 average so far this season (not too shabby for a 20-year veteran) and he’s getting a hit for every 3.9 At-Bats.  He’s not walking much (only 4 Walks in 87 Plate Appearances) and he’s getting just a smidge over 4 At-Bats/Game. 

He needs 49 hits to get to 3,000.  So, he’ll need 189 At-Bats or so which translates to about 47 Games if he doesn’t take any time off. And considering Biggio is 41 years old, he’ll have to sit out some games here and there. 52 Astros Games should get him to the 3,000 hit mark.

Now then, Biggio is also working towards being the #1 target for pitchers in MLB history.  For his career, Biggio has been plunked once every 42.5 times he makes a plate appearance.  This season, Biggio is getting around 4.4 PA/Game in 2007 (low walks and HBP). 

He needs 5 HBP for the record of 288.  Which means he’d need around 213 Plate Appearances at his career 42.5 AB/HBP.  That translates to 49 Games to break the record.  Add in the 5 days off I gave him in the 3,000 hit example and it’s 54 Astros Games.

This milestone race could be close.  52-54 Games would put the Astros right smack in a road trip to Texas and Milwaukee.  It’d be a shame if a lifelong Astro didn’t get hit #3,000 in Houston.

• 6/15-17  : vs Seattle (45-47 games from 4/26)
• 6/18-20  : @ Anaheim (48-50 games from 4/26)
• 6/21-24  : @ Texas (51-53 games from 4/26) … 3,000 Hits?
• 6/25-27  : @ Milwaukee (54-56 games from 4/26) … 288 HBP?
• 6/28-7/1 : vs Colorado (57-60 games from 4/26)
• 7/2 – 7/4 : vs Philadelphia (61-63 games from 4/26)

However - Biggio only had a ratio of 67 AB/HBP last season, and only has one HBP in 87 PA in 2007.  Maybe they hurt more as he gets older or maybe pitchers don’t want to be they guy who plunks him for #288.  So the HBP record might take a bit longer than 54 more games.

Or – you never know – one of the next 4 fateful HBP’s could end his career and derail both the quest for 3,000 hits and 288 HBP.

But of course, what the heck do I know?  Have at it.

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Be sure to follow Biggio’s HBP’s over at Plunk Biggio. All stats as of Thursday, April 26.

This entry was posted on Friday, April 27th, 2007 at 3:24 pm and is filed under 2007 MLB, Stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.