Home Run Derby

  OK, Nick the Greek just had the Spring Break from HELL!!!!  If something could have gone wrong it did.  Nine days away from the office, and boy am I happy to be back.  One of the many downsides of all that went wrong (broken sump pump, carpet damage, re-venting my dryer, leak in a sky-light, son with pink eye, and I could go on and on and on) is I completely dropped the ball on the 30 teams in 30 days.

So in trying to keep with the concept, I am going to try to finish the last 17  18 teams (albeit abbreviated) in one sitting.  Kind of like John Candy in the Great Outdoors when he sat down to polish off the old 96′er.

So get some popcorn and sit in your comfy chair because here are the predictions of the last 17 18 teams 

Let’s get it started.  Keep in mind I won’t get to wordy with each of the predictions, because, well it would take too much damn time.

Win Total Over/Under is 94. I say under for two reasons. The AL East save Baltimore is much better and hold on to your hats BoSox fans, the starting pitching is very good but not great.  Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester have a ton of talent but Buchholz has only 3 starts (yes and 1 no hitter) and Lester was about average in 11 starts last year (104 ERA+)

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: No break out candidate because neither Ellsbury or Pedroia will put up significant power numbers (neither will hit more than 10 home runs) and all the other regulars are well establish.  I do think Manny will rebound from his 20 Home Run season of a year ago and hit about 33.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Jason Varitek.  He won’t hit 17 again this year.

Bold Statement: The Red Sox will win 91 games this year, finish behind the Yankees AND miss the playoffs.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: Back to back World Series

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Ellsbury wins Rookie of the Year

Win Total Over/Under is 73.5.  It is too bad the Astros don’t have another starting pitcher even half as good as Roy Oswalt.  If there is any division in baseball to play the odds  and take the over its the NL Central.  I will take the over, but just barely. 

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Hunter Pence.  He hit 17 in 108 games last year.  I say 31 in 155 games this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Lance Berkman.  The man is always battling nagging injuries.  This is the year he can’t.  I think he misses about 45 games and only hits 23 Home Runs.

Bold Statement: Miguel Tejada gets a 50 game suspension this year and it’s not a B-12 shot (is that really bold?).

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 78 Wins and 3rd place in the NL Sucktral…I mean Central.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Oswalt - Cy Young (although I don’t think he does it).

Win Total Over/Under is 86.5.  If there was any team that outperformed their suggested win total last year it was the Diamondbacks (-20 run differential, should have won 79 games but really won 90).  However, this team got better with Dan Haren added to the rotation and their kids getting a year of seasoning.  I say over.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Stephen Drew.  Last year just doesn’t fit his profile.  He should hit about 25 this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Conor Jackson.  One would expect a young 1B to bring some power to the plate, but at 26, he is quite young anymore.  He may hit 17 this year, but he should hit 30.

Bold Statement: Webb and Haren will each win 22 games this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: Another trip to the NLCS.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Cy Young for either Webb or Haren.

Win Total Over/Under is 83. Is this team 7 games worse than last year.  I doubt it, and I doubt that NL West foe, Arizona will finish 11 games over projected wins again, so I can’t imagine this team missing the win total.  I say over.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: With the exception of 2B, the other 8 position players are the same from last year.  New 2B Jayson Nix will not set the power world on fire, even if he manages to get 75% of the starts at that position.  No breakout.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Clint Barmes’ best friend Troy Tulowitzki.  I am a big fan of Troy but it will be hard for him to surpass last year’s 24 Home Runs.

Bold Statement: This is the year the Rockies part with Todd Helton (the annual destroyer of my Home Run Derby chances…well that title belongs to David Wright, but Helton is a close 2nd.  Not this year though).

Best Case Scenario for the Team: A return trip to the playoffs, but not the World Series.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Matt Holliday wins the MVP (like he should have last year).

Win Total Over/Under is 85.  Three straight NL West teams (all three hit 171 Home Runs last year).  The Sand Diego Padres are probably the team most excited for 2008 to start and leave last year behind them (wait scratch that because that title belongs to the Mets).  The Padres are looking to avenge last seasons collapse and missed playoffs.  This year the get a little worse.  Sorry Pads,  I go under.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Scott Hairston.  Free of Arizona and Mike Cameron, he hits 25 Home Runs this year, as his career .967 OPS in the minors would suggest.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Tadihito Iguchi.  Let’s face it, Gooch hit 9 Home Runs in two of the most hitter friendly parks in the Majors (Citizens Bank and the Cell) after having two decent power years with the White Sox.  He should hit 15-18 Home Runs but will struggle to hit 10 Home Runs.

Bold Statement: The Padres will finish 4th in the NL West, ahead of only the lowly Giants.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: Squeaking out of a NL west title only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. (Really and one of 4 teams could win the west).

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Another Cy Young for Jake Peavy.

Win Total Over/Under is 74.  With an outfield of Emil Brown, Ryan Sweeney and Travis Buck. I will go under.  It will be really easy if Rich Harden fails to start 10 games for the 3rd year in a row.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: This team will struggle with power, not break out candidate.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Jack Cust led the team with 26 Home Runs last year.  With Emil Brown hitting behind him and Mike Sweeney stealing plate appearances, Jack Cust won’t exceed last year’s total.

Bold Statement: There is nothing bold about this team.  Let’s say Huston Street, Joe Blanton and Bobby Crosby are all wearing different uniforms by the trade deadline as Billy Beane still tries to prove Hudson, Mulder and Zito weren’t flukes.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 74 Wins and the promise of a new ballpark.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): None.

Win Total Over/Under is 86. A full year of Mark Teixeira helps a lot and Tom Glavine helps a little.  Over

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Jeff Francoeur.  He took a step back in his sophomore season interms of Home Runs, but his OPS+ actually improved.  I think the Home Runs follow this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: The aforementioned Marke Teixeira.  The Braves need him to hit 40 this year, but he falls short.

Bold Statement: Mike Hampton earns his paycheck this year with 12 wins in 30 starts after 2 years off.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: A wildcard birth by finishing with 89 wins and 8 games behind the Mets.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): None.

Win Total Over/Under is 93.5.  The Tigers are really good, but their bullpen scares me.  It will cost them a couple wins this year (see today’s game vs. the Royals).  I go under.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Another team with established players all over the field, but let’s say that I am really excited to see Miguel Cabrera this year.  I say he breaks 40 this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Gary Sheffield.  He’s pushing 40, is a bit unstable and has had injury problems the last two seasons.

Bold Statement: In a rematch of the 1945 World Series, the Tigers meet the Cubs, but this time lose.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: They win the World Series.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Miguel Cabrera MVP.

Win Total Over/Under is 92.5.   First, let me say this again.  David Wright is dead to me.  Second, I am soooooo glad that Johan Santana is in the National League.   Third, the Mets are the best team in the National League.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Ryan Church.  He’s in a better lineup and a better hitters ballpark (not much better but better nonetheless).

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: David Wright because he’s the bastard that killed my Home Run Derby the past two years.  No stats needed.  MVP my ass (and yes I do know he did not win it last year).

Bold Statement: The Mets will win 100 games this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: A World Series Win

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Johan Santana wins the Cy Young.

Win Total Over/Under is 91.  They get to play the Royals and Twins 36 times this year (please note I did not include the White Sox in that equation). If Carmona is as good as last year suggests, then its an easy over. 

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Ryan Garko.  First full season in the majors yielded 21 Home Runs and 117 OPS+.   Let’s see him take another step this year.  Hopefully, he gets more than 484 at bats this year.  Of course, if Grady Sizemore had 162 games agains the White Sox, he would hit 192 Home Runs this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: I am sure a lot of people are predicting a Travis Hafner turnaround.  Do not count the Greek in that crowd.  I see a repeat of 2007, which is the very definition of a disappointment. 

Bold Statement: Sabathia, Carmona and Westbrook all win 20 games this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: Another team that could win the World Series.  That would piss off Cubs fans.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Sabathia or Carmona, Cy Young

Win Total Over/Under is 75.  The Rangers are a bad team with bad pitching. Kevin Millwood is the “ace” and Vincente Padilla is the #2.  Ugh.  Still this team gets to play the Oakland A’s about 2o times this year, and I think the Angels are a bit overrated.  They will miss Mark Teixeira in the middle of that lineup, but Young, Kinsler and Blalock all have some pop (assuming Blalock is healthy this year).  I say over.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: No great candidate here, but I think Ian Kinsler takes another step in the right direction and hits about 28 Home Runs after 20 in 2007 and 14 in 2006.  He should get an additional 120 at bats this year compared to the 480 he got the last two years a piece.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Josh Hamiltion. He surprise many last year with a good season for the Reds that included 19 Home Runs.  Problem is he is going to a pitchers park (97 rating vs 104 for the Great American Ballpark) and will be depended on for more production in the Rangers line-up than the Reds. 

Bold Statement: Ranger fans will yearn for the days of Sammy Sosa when the realize he is less of a cancer than Milton Bradley.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 79 Wins and a third place finish in the AL West

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Michael Young batting title.

Win Total Over/Under is 72.  Will this be the year for the Rays to break .500?  They do have one of the best offensive weapons in the game in Carl Crawford.  BJ Upton appears to be on the cusp. Too bad Rocco Baldelli can’t catch a break out for at least half of the season with a mitochondrial disorder.  That sounds serious, best wishes to Rocco.  Unfortuately for the Rays, while they are better.  They have the unfortunate experience of being in the AL East and will get beat up regularly by the top 3 teams in that division. 

You know what, MLB should step in and shift them to the AL Central and the Royals to the AL West.  It will make everyone happy (except the Royals).  Tampa Bay doesn’t have to compete with the money of the Red Sox and Yankees (which Baltimore and Toronto can do) and ESPN gets a few more Red Sox-Yankees matchups because of the unbalanced scheduling with a 4 team AL East.  What do you think?

Oh, and I go with the over, but just barely.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: BJ Upton.  He hit 24 Home Runs last year as 22 year old playing out of position in the infield.  He steps it up this year and hits 35.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Jonny Gomes.  The dude can’t even spell his name right, how is he going to hit over 20 Home Runs.

Bold Statement: BJ Upton and Carl Crawford will combine for 125 stolen bases this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 82 Wins and a 3rd place finish in the AL East.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Carl Crawford gets the Stolen Base title.

 Win Total Over/Under is 76.  First, we have to mention that the White Sox saw their streak of consecutive seasons of 200+ Home Runs snapped last year when they only launched 190.  As far as a team record, the Sox actually outperformed their expected win total (72 vs 67) so a step up to 76 wins is a big jump.  I just don’t think the Sox are as bad offensively as the performed last year when they scored a paltry 693 runs (they scored 868 the year before).  I say over (call me a homer).

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Nick Swisher.  He has power and he is moving from one of the best pitcher parks (89 batters rating for Oakland) to the best hitters park (106 for the Cell).  His OPS+ is 125 and 127 the past two years.  He will enjoy the summer on the south side.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Can’t pick Jim Thome after he hit 2 on opening day, so I will pick Joe Crede.  He should hit about 30, but the trade distraction and the nearly 1 year off will cost him dearly.

Bold Statement: The White Sox will break the single season record for Home Runs by a team, currently held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners (264).

Best Case Scenario for the Team: A return to 2005 form and a trip to the playoffs (not likely but the best case scenario).

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Orlando Cabrera - Gold Glove.

Win Total Over/Under is 68.5.  This team doesn’t win many games but they certainly hit a lot of Home Runs (201 last year).  The loss of Miguel Cabrera will certainly lower that total, but the middle infield combo of Hanley Rameriz and Dan Uggla can really launch’em with the best of them.  Wins will be hard to come by, but they do get to play the Nats a lot.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: No real good candidate as Rameriz, Uggla, Willingham and Hermida have already broken out, but look for Willingham to step it up a notch this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Jorge Cantu.  The dude is replacing Miguel Cabrera, ‘nough said.

Bold Statement:  The Marlins will win more games than the Washington Nationals and the San Francisco Giants. 

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 76 wins and 4th place in the NL East.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Hanley Rameriz should be considered for an MVP but his team sucks so that won’t happen.  So I say he gets the batting title.

Win Total Over/Under is 94.  If there is a team out there that doesn’t need more written about it, it’s the Yankees. So let’s get to it.  Over.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: You had to see this coming…Derek Jeter.  He will hit 20 this year (can’t really have a break out on a team of vets).

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Bobby Abreu.

Bold Statement: Alex Rodriguez will win the TRIPLE CROWN this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: A World Series Title.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Alex Rodriguez MVP, Home Run Title, Batting Title.

Win Total Over/Under is 76.5.  Ex-Cub factor at work.  Any team that has Corey Patterson starting in CF can’t be in for a good season (although it would be an upgrade for the Cubs this year).  This team will hit a lot of Home Runs but won’t win a lot of games. Under.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Edwin Encarnacion.  He hit 15 and 16 the past two years.  He will hit over 20 this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Ken Griffey.  He is really going to miss Adam Dunn when Dunn gets traded in July.

Bold Statement: Adam Dunn will be the first player to hit 3 Home Runs in a game this year, earning a special post on Home Run Derby.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 5th place in the NL Central.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Adam Dunn, Home Run Title.

Win Total Over/Under is 88.  The Phillies turned an extraordinary opportunity in the playoffs last year into one of the biggest duds in recent memory.  Swept by the Rockies.  It was their one chance because they aren’t beating the Mets this year.  I say under.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Ryan Howard….just kidding.  There isn’t any good candidate.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Pat Burrell.  He won’t hit 30 again.

Bold Statement: The Phillies will finish with a .500 record.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: 2nd Place in the NL Central and a Wildcard.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Ryan Howard, Home Run Title.

Win Total Over/Under is 84. Last season’s team Home Run Champs, the Milwaukee Brewers, are the only team that will threaten the Cubs’ division title hopes.  I think 84 is a pretty easy get for this team. I say over.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: They had 5 of 8 position players hit over 20 Home Runs and all 8 regulars had double digits.  There is nothing to break out here.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: I am actually going to say Prince Fielder.  Just because he set the bar so high.  He had a 156 OPS+ last year, that won’t happen again.

Bold Statement: Ryan Braun will hit more Home Runs than Fielder this year.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: NL Central title and a 1st round ticket home.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Fielder MVP

 And…I’m spent (see the 1:25 mark of this video).

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 1st, 2008 at 11:27 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.