Home Run Derby

 As a tribute to Richie Rich and his other great baseball love, the Toronto Blue Jays, I decided to go old shool on the logo.  I am sure Richie has his vintage Blue Jays cap somewhere.  I remember sitting with him in the outfield of New Comiskey (as it was called at the time of our outing) watching the Palehose and the Blue Birds lock up in a battle of two quality teams. 

It was 1993 and the Blue Jays were the defending champions and the Sox were contending in the AL West and looked like world beaters.  Funny thing is I don’t remember the game too well (unlike my Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS recollection) but I remember Richie’s damn hat (it was the blue road cap, and matching road jersey).

But before I go any farther, please rise and remove your caps as we sing the Canadian National Anthem (and no I am not Canadian).

I had to use a Hockey clip to get the full effect, and no, the tone deaf guy featured prominently in the audio is not me (although I am pretty damn tone deaf).  But enought about the anthem and on to the Blue Jays.

Win Total Over/Under is 84.  On the surface, the Blue Jays should have been an 87 win team last year (they finished with 83) so this should be a slam dunk, if you believe the team got better by adding Scott Rolen and David Eckstein to their infield and seeing BJ Ryan return to the closer role. 

Problem is the AL East (save the Orioles) is going to be tough.  The Yankees and Red Sox will continue to make life difficult for the Blue Jays (although the team was only 2 games under .500 vs those two teams at 17-19) and the Tampa Bay Rays are better than last year as well  (they split the season series at 9-9 last year). 

That all in mind, I will take the under here.  

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Again, not a great candidate in this line-up for a “break out year”, so I will give some love to the Big Hurt and say Frank Thomas will likely hit 35 bombs this year after hitting only 26 in his first season with Toronto.   Sorry Jays fans, but I only think of Big Frank in a White Sox Uni.  Quick trivia: Can anyone name the player dubbed “Little Hurt” by Hawk Harrelson? Sox fans are disqualified.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: This is a tough one, because we have two outstanding candidates in Aaron Hill (17 Home Runs last season) and Alexis Rios (24 Home Runs).  Rios only hit 7 Home Runs after June 30th suggesting his 1st half may have been a mirage, but his OPS+ was 120 and 122 the last two seasons, respectively.  Still, he didn’t show that kind of power in the minors, so it makes me nervous.  Two seasons, a trend does not make.

However, I think Aaron Hill is the better bet here.  He slugged 70 points higher last year than in his previous two seasons and his OPS+ rating was 16 points higher.  He may hit double digits, but I don’t think he is good for much more than 10 or 11 Home Runs.

Bold Statement: For only the second time in his 10 year career, AJ Burnett will start over 30 games AND for the first time he will win over 12 of them (he has won 12 twice…kind of reminds me of Kerry Wood).

Best Case Scenario for the Team: The team catches lightening in a bottle the first couple months and stays at the top or near the top of the AL East only to finish second to either the Yankees or the Red Sox.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Roy Halladay wins the Cy Young or BJ Ryan wins Comeback Player.

Next up: The Defending Champion, Boston Red Sox.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Blue Jays. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.