Home Run Derby

 OK, I have taken some time off,  so I am going to fire through about five or six teams in the next couple days to catch-up.  Next up is the last of the light power-hitting teams, the Seattle Mariners.  I base that last comment on their team Home Run total of 153 dingers last year.  The Mariners are at the point of the team Home Run List that is somewhat of a demarcation line because the next lowest total belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays at 165. 

Of course none of this is meant as a slight to the Mariners – whom I think will be the surprise of the majors this year.  If you read our Angels preview, I already said that Mariners will best the Angels by 8 games this year on their way to the AL West crown.  I guess I am a sucker for pitching (kind of ironic given the focus of this site) and the starting five headed by Eric Bedard and Felix Hernandez is the best in the AL West and they are backed up by one the best closers in the game today … Mr Soul Patch, JJ Putz.

Win Total Over/Under is 85. The pitching will keep this team in a lot of games, not to mention they will get to beat up on the Oakland A’s and Texas Rangers more than any other team, save the Angels.  It’s funny but the Mariners have somewhat the opposite problem of most teams.  They have the best lead-off player in the game in Ichiro, it’s the well compensated meat of the order that isn’t holding up it’s end of the bargain.

Their are very few tandems of sluggers that have been more disappointing than Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre.  In fact if Sexson’s 2007 OPS+ of 84 repeats this year, then my prediction of a Division Crown will be so far off, it will appear that I was on drugs when I made it (I assure you that I am not).  My guess is we will see him regress towards his career OPS+ 121.  Bad news for the proprietors of Norm’s in Seattle and the Cheap Sex Mondays promotion.

As for Beltre, it is clear his 48 Home Run mark in 2004 was an abberation (no judgement on how he did it …*cough* Brady Anderson *cough*).  He is a 25 Home Run, 95 RBI, 107 OPS+ player.  Unfortunately for the Mariners he is paid to be a 40 Home Run, 130 RBI, 140 OPS+ player. 

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: No one to see here, please move along.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: Raul Ibanez.  He will be 36 this year, and he coming off his two of his best OPS+ seasons in his career. Regression seems likely.

Bold Statement: I already made it, saying the Mariners will win the west by 8 games.  I will take it one step further and say they will make it to the ALCS.

Best Case Scenario for the Team: Rotation kicks ass, and Beltre and Sexson each hit 30 Home Runs and the Mariners make it to the World Series (where they will lose to the Cubs).  But I don’t think that is very likely.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): Ichiro wins the batting title.  JJ Putz wins the Rolaids Relief Man.

Next up: We go North of the Border to Canada for the Toronto Blue Jays (ETA 4PM CDT).

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 19th, 2008 at 9:24 am and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Mariners. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.