Home Run Derby

  It’s hard to believe that we are just about a quarter of the way done with our 30 in 30 feature.  Thank you to all that have participated to date, either by commenting, linking or participating in our roundtables.  Day 7 moves our attention to the NL Central.  And no, Cardinal fans, God did not create the Cardinals on the seventh day. Give Sky’s Redbird preview a looksie as well.

Last year, the Cardinals hit 141 roundtrippers.  With the news that Albert Pujols will try to play with at torn elbow ligament, which will require reconstructive surgery, that number will be sure to go down this year as he accounted for 23% of the team’s Home Runs last year.

Let’s face it … when you lose one of the five best position players in baseball, your team is going to struggle and the Cards are going to have a tough time competing.  The only thing they have going for them is that they compete in the NL Central, quite possibly the worst division in baseball from top to bottom.  There is a Cubs joke in there somewhere, but I can’t quite get my finger on it.  Please feel free to leave one in the comments section.

Win Total Over/Under is 77. This will be a under bet for the Greek.  The Cards won 78 games last year but outperformed their run differential (-104) by 7 games.  They will not be that lucky this year, and I am willing to wager that Pujols doesn’t even make it to July before going under the knife.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season:  I am going to go opposite of Sky here and say, Rick Ankiel. The fact that he is even back in the show tells me not to doubt him.  His OPS in the minors is nearly .900.  He might not do as well if Pujols misses a lot of time, but I think he may crack 25 Home Runs

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season:  Chris Duncan.  I think Pujols is exempt given he is playing with a one arm penalty.  Duncan is a pure power hitter (and this critique is probably a bit hypocritical) but the dude strikes out way too much or once every 3 at bats.

Bold Statement: The Cardinals will finish with fewer wins than the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Best Case Scenario for the Team:  The ghost of Pat Morita shows up in the Cardinals locker room and he rubs his hands together and does his magic fire, healing hands on Albert’s elbow and his ligament mends without surgery.  Albert then goes on to hit 55 Home Runs this season.  No truth to the rumor that Elizabeth Shue will be in the room with them to “supervise” the healing or act as Miyagi’s translator.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards): I have a hard time picking the popular choice of Colby Rasmus winning the ROY award, because I really hate to pick rookies to win awards.  ROY is probably to the hardest award to pick.  The problem is I don’t see any other possibility.

Nick, Rich, and I are joined by Erik Manning of Future Redbirds, Dan Moore of Get Up, Baby!, and Daniel Shoptaw of C70 At The Bat.

Sky: So, what will be the Cardinals main storyline of 2008?

Erik: This will be the worst season ever under Tony La Russa’s watch as the Cardinals manager.

Daniel: LaRussa’s worst year was a 73-89 1997. (Hard to believe the Cardinals challenged Houston that year until late July.) I’ll go on record and say this year’s team is not that bad. I’d expect more like last year’s 78 wins, with a chance at 81.

Dan: The major Cardinals storyline of 2008? It’s either going to be “Cardinal Youngsters Perk Up Disappointing Season” or “Thousands of Cardinals Fans Leap from Metropolitan Square.” Cardinal fan happiness is, right now, inextricably linked to what Colby Rasmus does when he hits the majors.

Daniel: What do Cardinal fans know that the media doesn’t? Well, thanks to people like Erik, I think Cardinal fans know that the minor league system is not a bereft as some would make it out to be. We know that Colby Rasmus is going to be fun to watch. We know that Pujols has played in pain just about every season. And we know that there’s no place better to spend a summer afternoon than watching the Cardinals.

Erik: The mainstream media has started to picked up on it weeks after we’ve all known it- Albert Pujols will need Tommy John surgery, and possibly some time this season. I think is the “why” to your first question. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be in contention, and should they perform they way the projections like PECOTA expect them to, Pujols could succumb sooner then later. The medical team says they are more then OK with Albert playing, but this is the same group of quacks that green lighted signing Matt Clement, fed us a lines of crap about Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter’s health, and many players such as Scott Rolen have sought treatment elsewhere. I could get into litany of stupidity we’ve experienced, I’ll spare you from that. They already look to be mediocre at full health and they look much worse without the Big Guy.

Rich: If Pujols goes down, this team is going to compete with the Royals for the worst MLB team in Missouri. They might just do it with Prince Albert in the lineup.

Erik: As far as “feel good stuff”, the team is getting younger and prospects like Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez and Rule 5 pick Brian Barton could all make substantial contributions sometime in the season.

Sky: When I think of young-ish Cardinals, I think of Chris Duncan, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Which one of those guys will have the better career? I’m thinking Ankiel’s 2007 homerun barrage will go down in history next to Shane Spencer’s.

Daniel: That’s Erik’s area of expertise, but from a layman, the first question is easily Rasmus. Ankiel will be better than Spencer, but he’s not going to have the longevity and all-around career that Rasmus is. For those coming up, I’d say Chris Perez and Jamie Garcia.

Erik: I think Ankiel’s power is very real, I’m not ready to put him in the Shane Spencer category, though I think he’ll probably get exposed at some point. At 28, I’m not sure he’s young-ish, more newish to hitting, and considering that he is, what he did last year hitting 43 bombs between AAA/MLB is nuts. I think he’s capable of hitting 30-35 homers per year, but on the negative he’ll also post OBP’s in the .290 range. But Rasmus is the best prospect to come up through the system in what seems like ages. He can run, field, hit for power and draw walks. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial All Star.

Dan: Rasmus will definitely have the best career; he’s an all-world prospect. As for Ankiel, the home runs are real–I think he’s going to have a few years where he’s Jeff Francoeur with more range and the same game-changing arm, which is plenty valuable when you’re getting it cheaply.

Nick: OK, so if the team needs to focus on 2010, what chips do they have to parlay into major league ready prospects? Certainly no pitching with so many starters on the shelf. Adam Kennedy? I just don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon.

Daniel: I don’t know that the future is all that far away for the current team. They need middle infield upgrade, obviously, but with a return to health of Carpenter and the signing of a good pitcher in free agency next off-season, they could be right back into contention. I don’t think this is a total “trade off everyone and rebuild” type of situation.

However, the most tradeable option would be Chris Duncan, in my opinion. His bat is helpful, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think he necessarily has a lot of shelf life. At the same time, he’s attractive to a lot of teams because of his price as well as the pop.

Daniel: I think the story of ‘08 is going to the pitching. The question is whether it’ll be a fairy tale or, as expected, a horror story. I’ve written on my blog often that I think the pitching this year will compare favorably to last season’s. While that’s like saying I’m faster than Yadier Molina, it still is an important point. If the pitching keeps the team in games, there should be enough offensive weapons plus a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention. I’m not saying they are going to head into September with a three-game lead or anything, but it won’t be a dismal, completely lost season.

Rich: A team should never count on “a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention.” The Cubs employed that philosophy for years, and they consistently finished 4th or worse in the Division.

Daniel: It’s all about health. If Clement, Mulder and later Carpenter come back and pitch like reasonable facsimiles of themselves, the Cardinals have a pretty strong rotation, at least from 1-5. If these things don’t happen, and Wellemeyer or Thompson have to make numerous starts, then the prospects don’t look nearly as bright and the Rasmus Watch starts very early.

Sky: My problem with the rotation is that while there’s the potential for each starter to be very good, the median expectation falls well below the hype. Which one of Mulder, Clement, Pineiro, or Reyes is most likely to put together 160 IP at a sub 4.00 ERA? Mulder’s done it once in four years, Clement’s at once in five years, Reyes has never come close, and Pineiro’s two seasons were 2002 and 2003. Not that a shot-in-the-dark staff is a bad idea on a team with low expectations.

Daniel: I know that’s somewhat of a rhetorical question, but if I had to pick one, I’d say Reyes, because there is still potential there if it all clicks. There has been a lot of positive press on him this spring (which, granted, is one of the hallmarks of this time of year) and he’s shown flashes of what he can be. Whether it will all come together, I’m not sure, but I’m cautiously optimistic that he takes a step forward this year.

The staff ERA was 4.65 last year, and that was with a fairly strong showing by most of the bullpen. I gotta think that not having people like Kip Wells and Mike Maroth on the staff has to count for something.

Dan: As for everybody else, the Cardinals’ main need is replacing the Izturis-wide holes with adequate players, the kind of team-wide averageness that lets you go after a big free agent or make a risky trade like they’ve done in years past. If, by 2009, Jaime Garcia and one or two others among the Cardinals’ glut of average starter prospects can shore up the rotation such that it isn’t reliant on trash-heap pickups every year, it would be a great start.

The Cardinals are, right now, going into the season counting on the worst keystone combo in recent memory. Last year Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy combined for 29 extra base hits, and they’re both hemmorhaging range afield. We’re talking all-time bad. It’d be like a team going into the season counting on, say, Matt Clement and Todd Wellemeyer to fill spots in the rotation.

Erik: I’ll end with a few more comments on the farm system. Chris Perez is a flame-throwing college closer who’s moved up the ranks quickly. His slider is devastating, but he has troubles with walks. I’m hoping for Mitch Williams and praying he’s not Joey Devine. Clayton Mortensen, Jaime Garcia and Adam Ottavino we all hope become #3 type rotation options. Mortensen keeps the ball on the ground with extreme prejudice, Garcia, a lefty, is the a draft surprise with a big hook and is also an extreme ground-baller. Ottavino throws 93-95, even deep into his pitch counts and a decent slider and change.

There are also some others who are kind of under the radar and could be up by 2010: 2B/SS Jose Martinez, 3B Allen Craig and RHP Jess Todd. And for your readers who like fantasy baseball out there, here’s a guy that they may wanna scoop up at the back of the draft-RHP Kyle McClellan.

Sky: Alright, that should wrap things up — unless someone wants to mention Colby Rasmus’ name one more time. No? Ok, thanks again to Dan, Erik, and Daniel.

Tomorrow we changes birds and move to the Baltimore Orioles.

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 8th, 2008 at 3:48 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Cardinals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.