Home Run Derby

  OK, when I said 30 teams in 30 days, I intententionally left out the qualifier “consecutive” in the description, because I anticipated days like yesterday, where the Greek felt about as good as Jose Canseco’s chances at the Hall of Fame. 

Needless to say, it is time to march on to Day 5, and the real Los Angeles team, the Dodgers.  Be sure to check out Sky as well.

The Dodgers “cranked out” a total of 129 Home Runs last year, but their power prospects look to be on the upside with the addition of Andruw Jones.  The biggest acquisition news for the Dodgers though was their new manager, Joe Torre.  But before we get too far into our analysis of the upcoming Dodgers season. 

Let’s first take a time out to pay homage to the person who regularly adorns this site in Dodger Blue.  No it’s not Ramon spelled backwards, or Jeff Foxworthy … I don’t mean Jeff Kent or the newly acquired Andruw Jones.  It is, of course,  Dodger Fan and TV Witch, Alyssa Milano. 

Sometimes I do wonder if we here at Home Run Derby are more dedicated to the women connected to baseball more than the Home Run (not that it’s a bad thing).  In fact Richie, I think we need to go back to our old tag line, “Because Chicks dig the long ball!”  It is certainly more appropriate.

Anyway, I digress, back to baseball.  The Dodgers are hard to figure out. They have good talent, but tend to see more than their fair share of injuries.  I certainly believe they will hit more Home Runs this year.   I do believe they have as good a chance to win the NL West as the Rockies and Diamondbacks do, especially if Rafael Furcal is back at 100%.  So Let’s get crackin’.

Win Total Over/Under is 87.5.  Well, I guess I can’t say it’s right on the money, since there are no ties in baseball.  I do think the mark is right where the team will end up, 87-88 wins.  Forced to choose, I will take the under … given this team tends to get hurt. 

Although, as my good friend Steve Hulkower from Bugs & Cranks notes, the Dodgers are on a pattern of making the playoffs every other year for the past 4 seasons, meaning they are up this year (see roundtable below).  Oh, and yes Steve, I haven’t forgotten about the needed response to your “It’s all the ball, not the drugs” post.  I am moving really slowly … do they have PEDs for bloggers?  Other than caffeine, anyway.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season:  OK, Andruw Jones doesn’t count, but I do expect him to hit at least 35 this year.    Juan Pierre is going to take away an outfield spot, keeping Matt Kemp and Andre Either from having a full season of at bats.  I will go with 1B James Loney, who hit 15 HR in 96 games last year, meaning 25 is easily within reach (caveat is Torre will probably have Nomar at 1B for 2 dozen games, at least).

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season:  This is an easy one. Juan Pierre.  Not only will he fail to hit a homer again this year, but he will actually have a negative impact to the team’s power statistics by keeping at bats away from legitimate corner outfielders like Kemp and Either.

Bold Statement:  The Dodgers will come to their senses about Juan Pierre and the lack of power coming from Left Field, but instead of inserting Kemp or Either into the spot full time, they will sign one Barry Lamar Bonds to a deal.  On a separate note, all deceased former Giants players will roll over in their graves.

Best Case Scenario for the Team:  A division title and a date in the NLCS against the Mets.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards):  Andruw Jones wins a Gold Glove.

And now for our blogger round table.  Today Sky and the Greek are joined by Erin Wilson of Beantownwest, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts and Steve Hulkower of Bugs & Cranks.  Please note the roundtable is edited for content, mainly to make sure this post is shorter than a Nabakov novel.  Our panelists had an awful lot to say.

Sky:  So what are the storylines for the Dodgers in 2008? 

Erin: The Dodgers are set for most positions heading into this season, but there are a couple of interesting situations developing in spring training.

Garciaparra completely sucked last year.  He claims that he knows what was wrong, and it will be fixed this year.  My love for Nomar makes me think he will do better this year.  That’s not exactly a bold statement given his 7 HR, 59 RBI and OPS+  78 (every time I see that number, I cringe, especially since it’s only three points better than Juan Pierre, for the love of god).   I want to believe that Garciaparra will put up “Comeback Player of the Year” kind of numbers, but it’s hard to imagine.  Andy LaRoche is waiting in the wings, and many believe the job should be his.  I’ve advocated that in the past, but as the season approaches, I think I’m leading more toward letting Nomar start, but giving him a very short leash.   

Jon: I’m not clear on what the case is for Garciaparra other than sentimental. He might have a bounce left in him, but slight improvement isn’t enough.  LaRoche is more likely to have a better on-base percentage, slugging percentage and defense than Garciaparra.  If the Dodgers are gonna operate on a premise of hope, why not throw it the way of the guy with a better chance to succeed.  

Nick:  I am not sure what the upside of keeping Nomar in the starting lineup.  He clearly is a shell of his former self and even if he were to rebound a bit, couldn’t you get 15 HR and respectable OPS+ out of LaRoche?  I say stick a fork in Nomar his is done. Or would you rather see, the Dodgers trade for Inge or Crede? 

Erin:  I hope the Dodgers don’t trade for Crede or Inge.  Let’s say the team gives LaRoche a chance at third.  Who knows what the Dodgers would have to give up to get one of those guys.  I don’t know if we have any expendable parts right now. 

Steve:  Inge is defensively superior to LaRoche, but his price tag is too high and his offense too weak.  Crede isn’t as good defensively as Inge and his offense is paltry.  At best he has an average EQA which is something that LaRoche should be able to easily match if he’s allowed to play a full season.   

Jon:  There is simply no reason for the Dodgers to be pursuing Inge or Crede, and I think they realize that.  Most of the time the Dodgers make a move, it’s not one that has been rumored.

Erin: Left field is another issue.  With Andruw Jones signing, the Dodgers found themselves with a surplus of outfielders, most of which are pretty damn good.  Jones will be starting in center, which means Torre must find a new home for Juan Pierre.  Unfortunately, that new home is not on the bench or in another city.  Pierre will start in left field and make our lives miserable, and Ethier might not even be a Dodger by the time the trade deadline rolls around.  When Ethier is an All- Star somewhere else, maybe Colletti will be sorry.

Nick:  As far as the outfield goes, I heard the rumblings that Jones is quite puffy coming into camp.  Any concern that last year with the Braves wasn’t a one year anomaly? 

Steve:  Jones doesn’t worry me.  I’d like to see him earn his paycheck but if last season turns out to be the new norm, his 26 home runs are still likely to lead the team and his defensive ability is a major upgrade.  I’ve learned to shy away from giving weight to statistical anomalies.  If we charted Jones’ career, the data from 2007 would appear as an outlier that would get tossed out.  Players usually revert back to the norm.

Erin:  I’m not worried about Andruw Jones either.  I’d like to see him get back to his numbers from prior to last season, but as Steve said, 26 home runs would have led the team last year, and it will probably lead the team this year. 

Steve:  Martin had a great ‘07 but I don’t expect much improvement and wouldn’t be surprised to see him level out.  The stolen bases are great, but as a catcher we can’t expect too many of them.   

Erin: I agree about Russell Martin.  I don’t know if there can be improvement, unless the extra days off that Torre is promising help Martin feel better than he did in the second half last season. Even without improvement, though, if he puts up numbers like he did last year, I’ll definitely take it. 

Sky:  I’m always amazed at how valuable even league-average production from a catcher is. He’s probably overhyped thanks to the fantasy stats, but Martin is a big plus for the Dodgers.  What about the pitching? 

Erin:  Despite glowing reports on the rotation, I’m not feeling all that confident.  Penny will no doubt be as strong as he was last year. Lowe has me a little concerned because of his age and second half performance.  Kuroda is a big question mark. Until I see this guy get a few games under his belt, it’s hard for me to believe he’s going to be able to handle anything about American baseball.   

Jon: I can’t say I don’t have doubts about Penny maintaining his level - not with the decline in his strikeout rate.  It’s possible he’s learned to pitch to contact, as they say, but not definite.  I agree Kuroda is something of a wait-and-see, but I think Erin is a little too pessimistic.  

Erin:  If I seem pessimistic about the season, that’s because I am.  I can’t help it.  Last season’s fade left a sour taste in my mouth, and I didn’t see enough changes in the off-season to make me feel that this year will be different.  Seriously, though, do you see this team winning the west, or even the wild card? 

Steve:  I’ve become a firm believer in the every other year theory.  I think the last 4 years have seen a playoff caliber team here in Los Angeles (hold the Angels jokes), but two of those years were destroyed by injuries.   If the Dodgers stay healthy, which the current pace says they will, I’m very optimistic about their chances in the West this season.  the key to the Dodgers’ season is the health of Rafael Furcal.  

Sky:  For this team to beat out all three of the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres, all three of Laroche, Ethier, and Kemp need to start and perform up to their potential. 

Jon:  It’s going to be a tough division. Any of four teams has a claim to being the favorite. That’s gonna make it a tense race from the start - the season has an every-game-counts feel.

Next up in the 30 in 30 feature will be on the anti-Dodgers, AKA the San Francisco Giants.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 6th, 2008 at 6:28 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Dodgers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.