Home Run Derby

Day 4 … another team – The Halos. 

If you haven’t already, please check out our first three installments on the Royals, Twins and Nationals.   Also, check out SkyKing’s opinion on the Angels as well.  

The Angels hit the same number of Home Runs as the Washington Nationals in 2007, a mere 123.  The big difference is that LA parlayed that anemic power into a 94 win season capped with a AL West Divison Title and playoff appearance (well “parlayed” may be the wrong word, “in spite of” is more appropriate), while the Nats just plain sucked.  But before I go any further, let me get this out of the way.

OK, now that we have that out of the way … let’s turn our attention to the Angels. 

Clearly the lack of power doesn’t bother this team.  Although, this year, they should see an uptick in the power numbers with the aquisition of former Twins CF Torii Hunter.  His acquisition probably brings a bigger net Home Run number because in addition to the 20-something Home Runs Torii will hit this year, he will bring back an additional half dozen with his glove. 

Let’s get to the predictions.

Win Total Over/Under is 92:  I will go with the under.  I think the upper 80’s is more likely, topping out at about 88.  The one thing the Angels have going for them is Oakland and Texas are just plain terrible and they get to fatten up on those two patsies with 38 games against them.  They have to win at least 25 of the games to have a chance at 90 wins.  Oh, and this can’t be good, Vladimir Guerrero’s elbow already hurts (you know the one that limited him to DH most of September/October last year).

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Ok, I am going to take the chickenshit way out.  I don’t think anyone will have a break out season on this team. Really … the only player I think will have more home runs than last year on this team might be Vlad.  But that would be more of a “rebound” year, not a break out year.

Player most likely to have a Disappointing Home Run Season: Torii Hunter.  OK, this one is a bit of head scratcher.  He is coming off his second best power season ever (122 OPS+, .505 SLG.), and he is moving to a better hitters’ ballpark.  I will chalk this one up to a complete, pull it out of my ass prediction.  There is something telling me he is going to have a drop off this year.  Maybe it’s the fat contract.

Bold Statement:  The Angels will finish 8 games behind the Seattle Mariners and miss the playoffs.   

Best Chance for Hardware:  That one’s easy.  Torii gets another Gold Glove.

Before I get to the roundtable, I just want share one more video.  Given my disdain for the rally monkey, I figured it’s time he got Trumped!

Today’s roundtable includes Richie Rich, Sean from Angels All the Way and Rev from Halos Heaven.

Sky:  The Angels are the largest favorite of any of the six divisions.  Is 2008 in the bag or could they miss the playoffs? 

Sean: Angels are huge favorites, but nothing is ever guaranteed.  If Vlad, Lackey, and Escobar all went down with injuries, and Bedard and King Felix compete neck and neck for the Cy Young, the Mariners could squeak by the Angels. 

Nick:  I am inclined to agree with Sean that nothing is really guaranteed for the Angels.  There is a significant threat from the Mariners and given how bad the Rangers and A’s will be this year, it is imperative that the team beat up quite regularly on those two cellar dwellers.   

Rev: Actually, I am not shitting my pants over Queen Felix. 2008 is not in the bag, though. Scioscia likes to stick with his guys and every day Gary Matthews is in the lineup is a day spent possibly spinning our wheels. 

Sky: Looking back after the season, what will be the biggest Angels storyline of 2008? 

Rev: Brandon Wood. You read it here first even though every self-appointed analyst who has now given up on him will claim they called it. 

Sean:  Shortstop.  If Aybar hits .250 with a .275 OBA and 40 errors, but the Angels stubbornly refuse to take him out of the lineup, he could single-handedly jeopardize the season.  I say, Izturis is almost a sure thing to be a solid player if not one with upside, and Wood is a gamble but with huge upside. 

Sky:  What do Angel fans know about the team that the mainstream media should pay more attention to? 

Sean:  The Angels have a lot more players who deserve a starting job than there are lineup spots.  Vlad, Anderson, Matthews Jr., Hunter, Rivera, Willits, and Morales all deserve playing time, but three of them are going to be on the bench any given day.  Mike Scioiscia has his work cut out for him making sure that everyone is happy, and egos and personalities are kept under control. 

Sky:  Seriously Sean?  You created the phenomenal CHONE projection system and TotalZone historical fielding ratings, but now think the Angels 2008 season comes down to Scioiscia keeping the veterans happy? 

Sean: I did not say that the 2008 season comes down to keeping the veterans happy.  I just said that it could be a challenge for Scioscia because they have so many good players at the OF/DH spots. 

Rich:  Is there any chance that one of those OF/DH’s isn’t with the Angels after July 31st?   

Nick:  I think they deal from strength to get more pitching. 

Rich: By the way, how high is the centerfield fence in Anaheim?  Just tall enough for Torii to make HR-saving catches? 

Rev:  Hunter should look great on the highlight reels with that Anaheim Centerfield fence. My season seats are 6 rows behind Torii, look for the crackhead in the biker jacket, folks. 

Sky: I’m a big fan of both Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman, two players who can get on base and field their positions quite well.  Which one do people think will end up having the better career? 

Sean: Tough call.  I love both of these guys, and hope they have a decade each as key players on the Angels.  Kotchman is really slow, and has old player skills, so I’ll pick him to peak early and fade sooner, and Kendrick to go on to have a longer and more productive career. 

Nick:  I see Kendrick as the easy pick here.  If Kotchman was such a good talent, the Angels would have flirted with Konerko.  I am really interested in how Jon Garland, or as we call him here on the Southside, Judy Garland,  does in the Big A.  It bodes well that he gets to play inferior talent in the Rangers and A’s quite often this year because he made his living betting up on the Royals and the Tigers (pre-2006) while he struggle against more quality opponents.

Tomorrow will preview the real Los Angeles team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 4th, 2008 at 10:41 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Angels. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.