1. Pitching, pitching, pitching. Last year they invited 40 nobodies to the camp. This year they had a set of — mediocre, yes — but legit contenders for positions. If you compare Nat pitching of last year to today’s, its all improvement.

2. The better-than-mediocre pen does matter. The reason that Rauch had the most wins of any Nat in 07 is that there were quite a few occasions when, after the starters crapped out, the pen held the line and the bats scored late. Check the Nats score by innings last year (they didn’t score in inning one in the first 20 games).

3. Batting. Point 6, about replacement of all of the dead weight non-hitters, with up & coming hitters is critical. A line-up with Dukes, Pena, Zimmerman, Johnson and Milledge (not to mention Dmitri the midget), brings a lot more pop than 2007. 50-100 more runs me thinks.

4. Manny Acta. How many games does a good manager add? How much “luck” does he add? How much was he responsible for helping them play “above their level”?

I look forward to reminding you of this poor prediction after a few months.

I really like seeing the Nats fans engaged…It’s good for baseball.

Keep on coming back!

They kept throwing you fastballs, and you kept knocking them out of the park.
Not only with knowledge, but with politeness. good call guys.

The chances of them going 0-fer against the entire NL West are better than the Nats chances of doing the same against the Mets.

And when Lastings hits a HR at Shea, I hope he goes and high fives all the fans down the third base line. Milledge his .275 last season at the age of 22, I am more excited to see him play full time than anyone else on the team. A true 5 tool player who’s going to be a plus fielder in center, he should be real fun to see.

Until Dukes, who has a permanent “Nationals employee” (former cop) working with him full time, proves he can stay out of trouble, I’m not expecting him to have a true breakout season.

As for HANRAHAN (from today’s Washington Post):

Let me start by saying that Joel Hanrahan just threw three innings against the Braves. He allowed a single to Mark Kotsay. But he struck out eight of the 10 hitters he faced, including the last seven.

Let that sink in.

That performance included striking out Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur in order in the sixth. Not too shabby. Hanrahan’s numbers in five relief appearances this spring, you ask? That would be 7-2/3 innings pitched with two hits allowed, one walk and 12 strikeouts.”

The 1999 Astros moved out of the Astrodome and finished up there with 97 wins. The next year at Minute Maid they had 72 wins.

The 2000 Milwaukee Brewers won 72 games in County Stadium. They won 68 at Miller Park the following year.

The 1994 Rockies won 54 games (out of the 117 played that year) and finished out Mile Stadium with a .453 winning pct. The next year at Coors they won 77 out of 144, good for a .535 winning pct. This is such a screwy pair of seasons, I almost discount this example. And this is also pre-humidor.

The 2000 Pirates won 69 games at Three Rivers Stadium, and won 62 the following year at PNC.

The 2002 Reds won 78 games at Cinergy Field and won 69 in their first season in Great American Ballpark.

The ‘81 Twins won 44 (of 109) for a .376 wpct at Metropolitan Stadium, then won 60 of 162 in the Metrodome, for a .370 wpct.

I’m tired of lookin’ em up, but on the whole this corroborates Nick’s hunch. I would average the win-percentages together, since some of the short seasons don’t lend themselves to X amount fewer wins, but that ain’t happenin. Also, I wonder if there is an upswing for the year after the first year.