Home Run Derby

  Day 1 is in the books and the Royals are now in the rearview mirror.  On to Day 2 of our journey to preview 30 teams in 30 days.  Be sure to check out SkyKing’s preview too! Next team up is the Twinkies.  And boy how things have changed for the tenants of The Triple-H Metrodome.  And no, when I say Triple H, I don’t mean this guy…or anyone else in Degeneration X for that matter.

Anyway I digress.  This should be a year filled with uncertainity for the Twins.  Lots of new faces and quite a few question marks in the starting staff with the departure of Johan Santana, and to a lesser extent Carlos Silva, who will be replaced in the rotation with talented but unproved kids like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker.  Not to mention the return of Francisco Liriano from major arm surgery. 

Francisco….Francisco.  That’s fun to say (anyone who knows what movie that quote is from please chime in in the comments section - it’s a pretty easy one. maybe Richie can offer a prize- do we have HRD t-shirts, yet?). 

Having seen what happened to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior here in Chicago after major arm surgeries, I think people are kidding themselves that Liriano will be dominiating again this year.  And Livian Hernandez….how old is he, 100?  I can hit him. (Yes I am totaling ripping off that great “this is Sportscenter” commercial from many years ago).

The long and short of it is this team is going to struggle (to the benefit of the Royals).  I am interested to see how both Delmon Young and the kids from the Mets (if they make the team) do this year.  Well on to the predictions:

Win Total Over/Under is 73.5.  I think they will fall short. Maybe not even hitting 70 wins.  I already have concerns about the starting rotation as indicatd above, plus the loss of the Gold Glove in Centerfield, a patchwork leftside of the infield (newly acquired Mike Lamb and Adam Everett), and a lack of any depth on the bench and I see the Twins moving into the AL Central basement this year.  I think the drop off in the Twins talent this year is the difference between the AL Central being the toughest division in baseball and finishing behind the AL East.

Player most likely to have a Home Run Break Out Season: Delmon Young.  For a young man that almost 60 Home Runs in the 2 and half seasons he played in the minors (Slugging .518 with and OPS 0f .880), his first full season in the majors produced very limited power (13 Home Runs, SLG .408, OPS .724 in 681 plate appearances).

Considering his talent level and the fact that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will be hitting ahead of him, I think its a good bet he will start to realize his potential.  If he doesn’t, the Twins will most certainly hit the under in Win Totals this year.

Player most likely to have a disappointing Home Run Season: The aforemention Justin Morneau.  OK, maybe my judgment is a little clouded here.  He is not quite David Wright to me, but 2006, the year of his BS MVP (Just like the HRD entry claimed last year) showed he is susceptible to long stretches without power when he hit 6 Home Runs in the final 60 games of the season.  That year, of course, he was my Group E pick that denied me my first full year title in our Home Run Derby. Bastard.

The thing is, it happened again last year, except it was even worse.  Last year, he hit 3 Home Runs in the last 63 games. Yet in both seasons, he hit over 30 Home Runs.  Quite frankly, a player having 25+ Home Runs after 100 games to only end in the low 30’s is a diappointment.  The trend will continue this year, except his first half won’t be as strong as the past two years. He won’t even break 25 Home Runs this year.

Bold Statement:  Ron Gardenhire will pull a Tom Kelly and retire at the end of this season. (accidentally put this in my Royals Post!)

Best Case Scenario for the Team:  Both Francisco and Livian regain the previous dominating forms and each win 20 games and propel the Twins to a 3rd place finish in the Central.

Best Chance for Hardware (League Awards):  Joe Mauer regains the Batting Title.

Roundtable:  Today Nick and I are joined by John Bonnes from Twins Geek.

Sky: Right now the trade of Johan Santana is the dominant Twins storyline. What will the big story at the end of the season be?

Nick: To me that’s easy, it will be the same storyline all year — the Twins will really, really, really miss Carlos Silva… I mean Johan Santana. Pitchers like him come along so rarely that the Twins should have done anything to keep him.

John: What about how bright the future looks for 2009? Maybe it’s the first non-freezing day in a week talking, or maybe listening to spring training games again has altered my chemical balance, but how can you not be excited about some of the potential on this team?

I’m not terribly optimistic about the center field situation before the All-Star break, but I’m damn excited to see what it looks like in September. Or whether Delmon Young can give us a glimpse of a future Vlad. Or if Jason Kubel’s second-half plate discipline can vault him back into the middle of the order. Or even if Alexi Casilla can rediscover the good graces that made him the talk of spring training last year.

And that’s not the half of the team that has the most potential. Was Scott Baker for real those last two months? Can Boof Bonser, who led the International League in strikeouts a couple years back, become a #2 guy? Can Kevin Slowey? And, of course, will Francisco Liriano be able to dominant AND stay healthy?

Nick: I really believe that Liriano is going to struggle this year. He may never regain the dominance he once had (see Kerry Wood).

Sky: Jeez, John, I think you just converted me into a Twins fan. Changing gears, is Ron Gardenhire smart enough to play Adam Everett every day?

John: Does Kyle Lohse give up big innings? If anything, Twins fans should worry that the team will sign Everett to a three-year deal shortly after Dick Bremer suffers his fourth pulmonary embolism over one of his defensive plays. Giving Gardenhire a player like Everett is like giving a desperate new father of a colic-stricken kid a Teletubbies video. There is just no way it doesn’t end up being overused.

Nick: Smart enough to play Adam Everett everyday? Who else are the going to play there, Nick Punto? Not many choices in the infield for this team.

John: For all the love thrown Punto’s way, he won’t get a starting job unless someone is hurt. He’ll still likely end up with 300+ at-bats, mind you, but that’s because there just doesn’t seem to be another competent infielder that can make the roster, especially if they carry 12 pitchers.

Sky: You know it’s a rebuilding year when Nick Punto can sniff the field. Given that assumption, where are position players on the next playoff team going to come from? I see Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer locked up through 2011, and potentially bright futures for Gomez, Young, and Kubel. (Actually, that’s a better start than I thought.) But is the farm system prepared to fill the gaping holes at second, short, and third? And can management keep the lights-out no-name bullpen freshly stocked?

John: Sky, I just don’t see the holes. You don’t need an all-star at every position. If Lamb can continue to mash righties and Harris can continue to be passable, they really only need Casilla to take over at shortstop (and I think Twins Territory is collectively selling him short.)

Meanwhile, the Twins could had some incredible speed at the top of the lineup with Gomez or Casilla. They could have an ideal guy hitting behind them in Mauer. Delmon Young can fill the hole between Mauer and Morneau. And you still have Kubel and Cuddyer backing them up. That’s a plenty solid first six spots in the lineup. Again, I’m very excited to see how this team looks come August.

Sky: I give Alexi Casilla a better chance of playing for a contending Twins team than Brendan Harris, and I’m really not that sold on Casilla. Harris’ bat was a touch above average last year, but he played both shortstop and second base poorly. I think this team will miss Jason Bartlett more than they currently realize.

Up next are the Washington Nationals.

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 am and is filed under 2008 MLB, 30 Teams in 30 Days, Twins. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.