J.C. Bradbury writes a very interesting Op-Ed in the New York Times on what could be driving the recent fall of many of Baseball’s most hallowed records … MLB expansion. We talk a lot about steroids and such – but if you think about it – he’s probably on target here …
Expansion abruptly reversed the trend; today, the variance in quality of major league pitchers, based on E.R.A., is at an all-time high. By letting in the riffraff for baseball’s elite to exploit, expansion increased the likelihood of great achievements. Without even bringing steroids into the discussion, it is no surprise that some already fine hitters performed even better after the early 1990s.
Baseball recently expanded in 1993 from 26 to 28 teams with the addition of the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies and again in 1998 to 30 teams with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Bradbury only hints at the statistical effect however … let’s look at some numbers.
| Period | Teams | AVG | SLG | AB/HR | ERA | R/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988-1992 | 26 | 0.256 | 0.380 | 44.62 | 3.79 | 4.21 | 0.76 | 3.25 | 5.67 |
| 1993-1997 | 28 | 0.268 | 0.418 | 34.07 | 4.43 | 4.86 | 1.02 | 3.49 | 6.32 |
| 1998-2006 | 30 | 0.266 | 0.426 | 31.36 | 4.48 | 4.88 | 1.11 | 3.41 | 6.53 |
The Offensive Explosion that took place after the first expansion in 1993 is staggering.  24 Triple A pitchers started getting regular work in the bigs and Batting increased 5% while Slugging jumped 10%.  The MLB’s big ticket stat, Home Runs, went crazy as the AB/HR ratio dropped by nearly 24%.  ERA shot up 17%. Scoring was up all over.
The 1998 expansion didn’t affect the overall league to the extent it did in 1993, but 1998 was the year of the Home Run for sluggers Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and it opened the gates for seasons by individual players which were previously thought to be impossible. Roger Maris’ 61-HR record (which had stood for 37 years) was broken six times from 1998-2001. 70 Home Runs were hit twice in that span. And in case you’re wondering, yes, Maris’ record was set in an expansion year as the AL increased from 8 to 10 teams.
Expansion is likely not the only reason for the jump and other factors have to be considered …
- advances in bat and ball technology
- bigger and stronger players
- performance enhancing drugs
- less small ball and more reliance on the 3-run Homer
- new stadiums that are more like NASA-funded launching pads
But when you look at one year to the next, Baseball offense took off overnight between 1992 and 1993. Which leads me to believe that expansion was at least the catalyst.Â
| Year | Teams | AVG | SLG | AB/HR | ERA | R/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 26 | 0.254 | 0.378 | 44.83 | 3.73 | 4.15 | 0.76 | 3.10 | 5.58 |
| 1989 | 26 | 0.254 | 0.375 | 46.33 | 3.71 | 4.15 | 0.74 | 3.23 | 5.64 |
| 1990 | 26 | 0.258 | 0.385 | 43.04 | 3.86 | 4.29 | 0.79 | 3.32 | 5.72 |
| 1991 | 26 | 0.256 | 0.385 | 42.26 | 3.91 | 4.32 | 0.81 | 3.33 | 5.81 |
| 1992 | 26 | 0.256 | 0.377 | 47.04 | 3.75 | 4.13 | 0.72 | 3.26 | 5.60 |
| 1993 | 28 | 0.265 | 0.403 | 38.46 | 4.19 | 4.64 | 0.90 | 3.36 | 5.85 |
| 1994 | 28 | 0.270 | 0.424 | 33.35 | 4.51 | 4.96 | 1.04 | 3.50 | 6.22 |
| 1995 | 28 | 0.267 | 0.417 | 33.96 | 4.45 | 4.88 | 1.02 | 3.56 | 6.35 |
| 1996 | 28 | 0.270 | 0.427 | 31.60 | 4.61 | 5.07 | 1.10 | 3.57 | 6.50 |
| 1997 | 28 | 0.267 | 0.419 | 33.50 | 4.39 | 4.81 | 1.03 | 3.49 | 6.66 |
| 1998 | 30 | 0.266 | 0.420 | 33.00 | 4.43 | 4.83 | 1.05 | 3.41 | 6.61 |
| 1999 | 30 | 0.271 | 0.434 | 30.23 | 4.71 | 5.14 | 1.15 | 3.73 | 6.48 |
| 2000 | 30 | 0.270 | 0.437 | 29.38 | 4.77 | 5.20 | 1.18 | 3.80 | 6.53 |
| 2001 | 30 | 0.264 | 0.427 | 30.45 | 4.42 | 4.82 | 1.13 | 3.29 | 6.74 |
| 2002 | 30 | 0.261 | 0.417 | 32.73 | 4.28 | 4.66 | 1.05 | 3.38 | 6.53 |
| 2003 | 30 | 0.264 | 0.422 | 32.02 | 4.40 | 4.77 | 1.08 | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| 2004 | 30 | 0.266 | 0.428 | 30.70 | 4.46 | 4.85 | 1.13 | 3.36 | 6.60 |
| 2005 | 30 | 0.264 | 0.419 | 33.15 | 4.29 | 4.65 | 1.04 | 3.17 | 6.38 |
| 2006 | 30 | 0.269 | 0.432 | 31.07 | 4.53 | 4.91 | 1.12 | 3.30 | 6.59 |
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April 12th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
The thing I find interesting is there are a number of triple A hitters that are in majors thanks to expansion as well (countering your 24 pitchers comment). Look no farther than the fact that your k-rate has increased from 5.58 to 6.59. Expansion is one factor, but I think the game is just played differently now. No more manufacturing runs. If Ozzie and the White Sox are labelled the small ball team but lead the majors HRs year after year. You know something is a miss.