Hopefully, you have perused my examination of AL pitching talent and the impact of the unbalanced schedule. I won’t take you through all the colorful commentary this time around and get right to the end result. Please keep in mind the liberties taken in the analysis: 1) I ignored interleague games, 2) I focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (NL exception is St. Louis where Kip Wells (2005 stats - 82 IP) and Anthony Reyes (85 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) I aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.
There is one other item I would like to point out. I have eliminated the entire Washington Nationals starting pitching staff from this analysis, because exactly ZERO of them had 100 IP in 2006 and only three of the six candidates even have 100 IP for their career. Whatever the over/under is on wins for the Nationals is, take the under. This team is going to be really bad. When Jerome Williams is having a tough time cracking a rotation consisting of John Patterson (423 career innings), Shawn Hill (45.2 career innings), Jason Simontacchi (285 career innings), Matt Chico (0 career innings) and Jason Bergmann (84.1 career innings) , you know you are in trouble, because it tells me the team would rather face the unknown than using an ex-cub. This team will challenge for the most losses in the history of MLB.
| Division | SP Sample | HR/9 Ratio | GB/FB Ratio | K/9 Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL EAST | 16 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 7.09 |
| NL CENTRAL | 23 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 6.69 |
| NL WEST | 21 | 1.01 | 1.28 | 6.42 |
It would appear that picking slugger in the NL East is a good bet, since the division has a poor GB/FB ratio comparatively to the other divisions and a higher HR/9 rate. And keep in mind, these stats don’t even count the horrible nationals staff, so those ratios are a bit too “rosy.” And I do realize that RFK ranks number 28 in Rich’s ballpark chart. However, the Nationals do play 81 games on the road, and this pitching staff just plain sucks.
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March 28th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
First off - fabulous job by Nick the Greek on these pitching posts. Feel free to post anytime.
The Over/Under on the Nats’ W/L record is set at 68-94. The Nats were 71-91 last season. There is no way the Nats finish with more than 66 wins.
This year’s Washington squad is without Jose Vidro, Nick Johnson, and - oh yeah - Alfonso Soriano.
They picked up Dmitri Young - hoping to have a comeback season - but that’s not going to replace Soriano by a longshot.
March 28th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Thanks Richie. It was fun, and I will try to come up with some insight on a regular basis. I don’t think Washington will even hit 58 wins.