Home Run Derby

For my maiden front page post, I thought I would take a different slant to Richie’s decree to have a better informed group of HR Derby participants. We have all benefited from the the quick look at ballpark statistics and the deeper dives on a few of those ballparks. Obviously, where the fences sit and the environmental factors play a huge role, but we also must consider who is throwing the ball. Today, we take a look at the American League. On Wednesday, I will complete the task with a look at the senior circuit.

My theory is, because of the unbalanced schedule, it is vital to understand the quality of the pitching staffs that your sluggers will face most often. Remember, teams face their division rivals at least 18 times each year, other league rivals at least 7 times, their key interleague rival 6 times, and other scheduled interleague rivals 3 times. For the purposes of keeping this analysis simple, I have done the following: 1)ignored interleague games, 2) focused only on starting pitchers with at least 100 IP at the MLB level in 2006 (AL exception is Toronto where Chacin (87 IP) and Okha (97 IP) did not have 100 IP but need to be included for sample size reasons) and 3) Aligned Free-Agent signees with their new staffs instead of their old teams.

A Quick look at HR rate by starters would show three teams with the worst rate by far:

So based on that quick analysis, We should pick players in the AL East, Followed by the Central (FYI. The Angels are next with a rate of 1.19 HR/9). But not so fast. One of the reasons why I don’t like this analysis is the small sample size for each team. I could have done the whole staff, but I don’t have that kind of time. Reminds me of a great Tommy Boy Quote, “I can take a crap in a box and mark it 100% guaranteed, I got the time.” But I digress.

So, I got to thinking about Homeruns and what do you need for homeruns: flyballs. The more flyballs you give up, the more chances you have to give up a round tripper. There is a great stat to utilize here, ground ball/fly ball ratio. The higher the number over 1, the fewer fly balls you give up. Not surprisingly, Minnesota, Boston and Tampa rank fourth, second and third from the bottom in that category. The Angel actually rank dead last.

This is where I think Richie’s ballpark statistic come in handy, because the Angels starters do throw a ton of flyballs, but given the ballpark is ranked #24, it gives credence to the Ball Park Argument.

However, groundball to flyball ratio does give you a true measure of the number of flyballs hit. So to get a better gauge on that ratio, it is important to look at it with an eye on strikeout ratio. Why? Because if the batter can’t hit the ball, there is no risk of a homerun…duh? LA of Anaheim’s Strikeout ratio is 7.16/nine (remember this is just for the starters currently on staff with at least 100 IP in 2006). But compared to the other three teams, it is only measurably better than Minnesota’s at 6.43.

So, where does this leave us. I still have a problem with sample size, and here is where the unbalance schedule becomes my friend. I am going to aggregate the teams into their divisions and see where that nets the analysis. And, here is the surprising fact. Even though the two of the worst HR pitching teams come from the East, the stats suggest it is the division to avoid. Check it out:

It looks like AL Central players have a better shot at hitting more homeruns that their other AL brethren. I will point out the weakness of this examination. First, it is only starters with over 100 IP. Second, it doesn’t remove the team the slugger is playing on for you to truly analyze. Third, more classic chicken or the egg theory. Are there better power hitters in the Central? or more forgiving ballparks? That is the beauty of picking homerun derby participants. The answer is the hitter’s skills are only a part of the equation. You must also consider venue, the quality of pitching faced and protection in the lineup. Today’s post tries to examine just one of those components. I hope you enjoyed it, please let me know what you think in the comments.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 26th, 2007 at 2:14 pm and is filed under Pitching. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.