Home Run Derby

The Yankees have taken their stand with A-Rod.  No way they will deal with him now that he has opted out of his contract, costing the Yanks their $21MM subsidy ($7MM/year) from the Texas Rangers.

Yesterday, however, the Yankees picked up the 2008 contract option on Bobby Abreu at the low, low price of $16MM.  This, of course, begs a question.

If Bobby Abreu is worth $16MM/season to the Yankees, is $30 million a season for A-Rod unreasonable?

I say no.  Take a look at the numbers.

The data clearly shows, as most would expect, that A-Rod had a much better season than Abreu. I didn’t necessarily think that A-Rod would slug 200 points better than Bobby, but is that necessarily worth extra $14MM a season?

The next set of data is what seals it for me. A-Rod is getting better, while Abreu has begun his decline.

This chart compares the 2007 season vs the players career averages (throwing out each players two partial seasons at the beginning of their careers).

Yes, I know it is one season, so let’s take a quick look at the average of the last three seasons:

And now those averages vs. career averages:

Now, 2007 was clearly an outstanding season for A-Rod, as the last three seasons, he has been only slightly better than his career averages. However, A-Rod is clearly gaining momentum in his production, while Abreu probably has hit his ceiling and has begun his down slope.

With that in mind, I believe the Yankees are making a big mistake in their stance with A-Rod.  They should be opening those big pocketbooks and paying the man.

This will be the beginning of the end of the Yankees for a few seasons.

If the Yankees don’t sign A-Rod, they don’t make the playoffs in 2008.

This entry was posted on Saturday, November 3rd, 2007 at 3:00 pm and is filed under 2008 MLB, Yankees. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.