HRD 2007 ALDS Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Posted by: Rob St. Hubbins in 2007 MLB Playoffs, Angels, Red Sox
Game 1 of the Red Sox vs. Angels series showcases a couple of proven big game pitchers.
Angels starter John Lackey capped off his 2002 rookie campaign with a solid postseason finalized by a win in Game 7 of the World Series.
The next year, Josh Beckett, starting tonight for the Sox, led the Florida Marlins to a World Series win which he capped off with a complete game win in the decisive Game 6 at Yankee Stadium. These two pitchers proved that this past success is no fluke, with Lackey finishing tied for second in the big leagues with 19 wins this season and Beckett leading the Majors as the only 20-game winner.
This might sound like a surefire pitcher’s duel, but a quick look at both pitchers’ numbers at Fenway and against their series opponents tells a different story.
In two starts against the Red Sox this season, both at Fenway, Lackey is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA, a BAA of .408 (20 hits) and 2 HR in 9.2 IP. In Beckett’s two starts against the Angels, also both at Fenway, he is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA, .216 BAA (11 hits), and 1 HR in 13 IP.
Game 2’s matchup has far fewer numbers for me to throw at you, but is still very intriguing. The Angels will start Kelvim Escobar while the Red Sox will send their big off-season pickup, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Escobar was 18-7 in the 2007 regular season with a solid 3.40 ERA and 160 K. He did not face the Red Sox this season, though he did get roughed up by the Sox in the 2004 ALDS. In his lone start in that series, Escobar lasted just 3.1 innings, registering 4 hits, 5 walks, and 3 runs, giving him an ERA of 8.10.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has yet to face the Angels in his long and storied Red Sox career, but he has had a fair amount of trouble at Fenway where he has looked like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Miyagi. He allowed 5+ runs in 5 of his last 8 starts this season, but ended the season on a strong note with an 8-inning, 2 ER performance against the Twins to bring his win total to 15. I unfortunately couldn’t find any postseason statistics from his time in Japan, but Matsuzaka did lead his Seibu Lions to the 2004 Japan Series Championship. Coincidence? Pretty much, but Sox fans can still hope there’s meaning there.
Game 3 features an outspoken postseason legend who was already chopping firewood in Anchorage when his opponent was born. I really don’t feel the need to say anything at all about Curt Schilling’s postseason experience except 2001 and 2004. If you don’t get the message there then grab a bloody sock and fly to Arizona. He had some mixed success against the Angels this season going 2-1 in 3 starts with a 4.05 ERA, and .263 BAA, but just 1 walk with 12 K. His only loss came at Angel Stadium, Game 3’s location, in a game where he gave up 4 ER on 9 hits in 6 innings.
Jered Weaver has no postseason experience and had mixed results in his two starts against the Sox this year. He was 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and .311 BAA, but the majority of that damage came in his start at Fenway. His home start resulted in a no-decision in which he gave up 2 ER, on 6 hits and 2 walks, lasting 6 innings.
If the series were to go beyond three games, the Red Sox rotation would go back to the top with Beckett while the Angels would either use Joe Saunders or start at the top as well. If you’re wondering where Tim Wakefield fits into the Sox’s plans in this series, well, he doesn’t fit in anywhere. They left Wake off the roster for this series due to his back issues. They say that his role as a long reliever/innings eater will be filled by Jon Lester since the strain of the role would be unfair to Wake’s health.
Now for those of you offensive-minded people, it’s time to talk about the hitters.
It’s no question that both teams have potent offensive attacks. What needs to be answered is how healthy the key hitters will be. David Ortiz seems to be over his early season ailments after a September in which he hit 10 HR and raised his BA from .320 to .332. Manny Ramirez also had solid numbers for the amount of time he played, posting a .296 BA and 20 homeruns, but he missed almost the entire final month and has hit just 2 HR since the trade deadline. While Ramirez’s success would make life much easier for Red Sox nation, they a group of tough outs like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Mike Lowell along with some speed from Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury (whichever one Francona puts in center), Julio Lugo, and Pedroia. Jason Varitek and J.D. Drew could contribute, but their main roles will be on D.
On the Angels’ side of series, the big offensive question is Vlad. He’s been limited to the DH role for the past month due to injuries, so not only is his big arm missing in the field but his bat could be diminished. His injury showed in September as he hit just 5 HR, but was able to collect 16 RBI in 20 games which is a respectable rate for anyone at full health. Aside from Vlad and sidekick Garret Anderson, don’t expect much in the power department. Vlad and Anderson hit 27 and 16 HR respectively, with Casey Kotchman the only other hitter in double-digits with 11.
The Angels don’t need to worry much about the long ball though, because their speed and defense provide a large spark. Their running game is boosted by extra-base hit machine Chone (it’s pronounced “Sean” people) Figgins, Scott Podsednik wanna-be Reggie Willits, and the Red Sox Nation’s lamented shortstop that got away, Orlando Cabrera.
These varying, yet equally effective styles have brought great success to both teams in recent postseasons. It won’t be easy, but whichever sea of red moves on to the ALCS has a strong chance of being the first team to win two World Series in this century.
Prediction: Red Sox in four
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