Home Run Derby

RYAN HOWARD – 58 HR, 10.02 AB/HR, 159 G

Followed up a ROY Award in 2005 with an MVP in his first full season in the Big Leagues, playing on a team which contended for the NL WildCard into the final week of the season.  In the BandBox that is Citizens’ Bank Park, Howard has huge potential to hit 60 HR.  However, Howard’s stretch run was anything but great (HR Derby-wise) as he only hit 2 HR over the last 21 games as pitchers stopped giving him anything to hit – will the Bonds treatment continue in 07?   

DAVID ORTIZ – 54 HR, 10.33 AB/HR, 151 G

Big Papi has hit more HR over the last 3 seasons than anyone else, and is possibly the most clutch HR hitter in recent memory.  Has increased his HR output for seven straight years.  A power hitting lefty who’s perfectly suited to blast homers to the short right field porch in Fenway. 

ALBERT PUJOLS– 49 HR, 10.92 AB/HR, 143 G

Plays at a different level than almost everyone else in MLB.  Pujols helped christen the new Busch with a World Series title in 2006.  He thought he should have been the NL MVP (and he’s right), which could be a motivating factor in 2007.  He will enter spring training seemingly free of some minor injuries from the past few years.  He’ll also play 2007 as a US citizen after having aced the citizenship test earlier this month.  

 ALFONSO SORIANO – 46 HR, 14.07 AB/HR, 159 G

Has very quietly averaged 30 HR and 30 Steals during the 21^st Century.  Quieted a lot of skeptics in 2006 while hitting 24 HR in pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium.  Could hit 30 at Wrigley alone.  The only question is when (not if) he ends his season after colliding with Cliff Floyd in the Cubs’ outfield.  Reported early to Cubs’ camp. 

LANCE BERKMAN – 45 HR, 11.91AB/HR, 152 G

Stepped up HUGE for the Astros last season, with career-highs in HR and RBI after averaging 26 HR the previous three seasons.  Could easily match 2006 total with Carlos Lee protecting him in the lineup.   

JERMAINE DYE – 44 HR, 12.25 AB/HR, 146 G

The 2005 World Series MVP had a career year in 2006, and unless the White Sox extend his contract, Dye will be playing for the big money in 2007.  He would be wise to re-sign with the Sox, as he’s dialed up 75 HR with 205 RBI in two big seasons at US Cellular Field. 

TRAVIS HAFNER – 42 HR, 10.81 AB/HR, 129 G

Pronk hit 42 HR in 2006 while missing all of September with a broken hand.  The injury (which did not require surgery) should be healed in time for Spring Training.  Tied a MLB record with six Grand Slams in 2006.  A tremendous slugger, the only question is whether he can play a full season - he’s never had more than 500 AB.  If he can, he’s probably good for 45 HR. 

JIM THOME – 42 HR, 11.67 AB/HR, 143 G

Returns to his rightful spot in Group A as he put his injury-plagued 2005 behind him and won the 2006 AL Comeback player of the year.  Slowed down after a torrid start last season and missed a little time last year.  Expected to miss some games here and there as his 36-year-old back is always a concern (but whose isn’t?).  Has hit 40 HR five of the last six seasons - so plan accordingly.   

ANDRUW JONES – 41 HR, 13.78 AB/HR, 156 G

The 2005 HR champion, Jones is entering a contract year and has lost 20 pounds in an effort to relieve some pressure on his sore knees.  Perennial Gold Glove CF.  Has averaged 46 HR the last two seasons and should probably hit about that many this season.

CARLOS BELTRAN – 41 HR, 12.44 AB/HR, 140 G

Truly improved in his Sophomore season in the Big Apple, more than doubling his HR totals in fewer at-bats.  Set career-highs in HR and RBI.  Potentially an injury risk, so count on 35-40 HR. 

This entry was posted on Friday, February 16th, 2007 at 11:12 am and is filed under GROUP A. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.