I’m not a big believer in any correlation between Spring Training stats and Regular Season stats, but in the past two seasons the player who hit the most Home Runs in Spring Training went on to wear the MLB Home Run Crown after camp broke …
- 2005 - Andruw Jones (10 Spring HR; 51 MLB HR)
- 2006 - Ryan Howard (11 Spring HR; 58 MLB HR)
Let’s look at our early candidates to see who will have extra pressure on them to keep that streak alive …
- R Braun, MIL - 5 HR, 6.8 AB/HR
- J Lane, HOU - 5 HR, 8.4 AB/HR
- B Bonds, SF - 4 HR, 5.8 AB/HR
- V Wells, TOR - 4 HR, 7.8 AB/HR
- K Greene, SD - 4 HR, 9.0 AB/HR
- B Eldred, PIT - 4 HR, 9.3 AB/HR
- B Hawpe, COL - 4 HR, 9.3 AB/HR
- T Sledge, SD - 4 HR, 10.3 AB/HR
- B Hall, MIL - 4 HR, 10.5 AB/HR
- B Phillips, CIN - 4 HR, 11.3 AB/HR
- J Reyes, NYM - 4 HR, 11.8 AB/HR
- C Duncan, STL - 4 HR, 12.8 AB/HR
Nobody’s exactly separating themselves from the pack … I look at the early HR leaders and I don’t think there’s any way one of these guys is your 2007 HR Champ. Braun just got sent to the minors - improve your defense, kid. Lane has to get his job back (and keep it) first. Bonds gets pitched around too much, doesn’t have the protection in the lineup he once did, and might only want 22 HR anyway. Vernon Wells has the skill and protection, but he just signed a big contract, and there might be too many big bats in the Jays’ lineup. You can scratch any PIT and SD players because of their low-HR homes.  Hawpe, Phillips, Hall, and Reyes - it’s not gonna happen.
Last Spring, Jim Thome and Ryan Howard got hot late. Let’s see if someone of their caliber steps up over the next 10 days.
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