Home Run Derby

Back before the five man rotation found its place in Major League Baseball, it was not uncommon to a pitchers have 20 losses in a season. Heck, the seventies had fourteen 20-loss seasons. Five of them were thrown in 1974 alone.

But now, with 20% less starts and the advent of pitch counts – it’s a real stretch for even a really bad pitcher to get 20 losses (partly because he’d be optioned or demoted before he got the chance). Since 1980, it’s only been done once – in 2003 by Mike Maroth (9-21).

It seems that every season, someone gets close to the 20 loss mark, as 25 pitchers have finished with 18 or 19 losses since 1982.

This season, that pitcher appears to be Jose Contreras of the Chicago White Sox.

Contreras has had a stunning fall from grace since Aug 21, 2005 – July 13, 2006 when he was 17-0 with a 2.92 ERA over 24 starts. Since then, however, he’s compiled a record of 10-25 and seen his ERA more than doubled (2.88). This season, he’s 6-16 with a 6.18 ERA.

By my count, Contreras has seven more starts in the White Sox’ forgettable 2007 season, provided that management doesn’t skip him in the rotation to keep their more reliable starters on a regular five-day schedule (and/or a chance at some incentives).

Even though Contreras will want the ball, I think the White Sox will skip him once or twice or demote him if he gets close to 20 losses. Contreras has two years ($10 million each) left on his contract and the White Sox have been trying to move him. Twenty losses might damage any trade value he has left at this point. Also, I can’t see the White Sox wanting Contreras’ struggles to distract anyone from Jim Thome’s quest for 500 Home Runs.

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photo: (AP /Ted S. Warren)

This entry was posted on Monday, August 27th, 2007 at 12:28 am and is filed under 2007 MLB, Pitching, Stats, White Sox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.